.comment-link {margin-left:.6em;}

No Pepper Games - A Fantasy Baseball Blog

Thursday, March 30, 2006

Fantasy Baseball: Reader Mailbag - Clint Barmes

It's that time of year again, when I get one piece of e-mail. I actually had it scheduled for sometime in June, so this really caught me by surprise. Loyal reader Joshua writes:
If you read Baseball Prospectus, how can you possibly be excited about Clint "Can't Hit The Side Of A" Barmes?


Well Joshua, that's a good question. But I'm afraid I'm not quite sure what you're referring to - I don't believe I've expressed any excitement towards our favorite carcass carrier (other than the opportunity to write "carcass carrier"). If I were forced to get excited about Clint, I'd be excited about his potential draft value.

And other than coming straight back from an injury (when few players ever play immediately back at their previous level), when has Barmes not hit well? And by "well", I mean .275+ AVG with decent pop. He's not Young, he's not Jeter - he's certainly no Tejada. He's not even Peralta or Lopez. But he is just a notch below the latter, and you can have him for much much cheaper while you focus on other positions. He's being drafted after fantasy-lightweights Carlos Guillen and Aaron Harang - number 185 on my dandy Yahoo average draft position rankings posted a few weeks ago.

I will happily take Miquel Cabrera or Jason Bay at the end of round 1 when people are taking Michael Young and Miquel Tejada, knowing that no one has been touching Barmes until after Round 15. (I will note, however, that Barmes was taken a bit earlier in one of my more recent drafts, semi-sponsored by - wait for it... - Baseball Prospectus). (Of course, this is the same league I drafted Teixeira at #7, and got Ortiz back on the turn at #14.)

Addendum: Okay, it would seem that I did say "both [Barmes and Crosby] could produce very very good numbers." I will admit that I was a bit liberal with the "very"s there. However, the potential is still there for Barmes to produce a .300+ AVG and 15 HRs. Too bad he plays in such a horrid pitchers park, otherwise he'd have that going for him... Wait a second, he plays in Coors!

Thanks for writing in, Joshua - I will try to be a bit more careful with my incredibly unnecessary superfluous extra adjectives in the future.

Friday, March 17, 2006

Fantasy Baseball: How Long Can I Wait For a... Firstbaseman?

How long can you wait? Soooooo long! There is just so much talent here, it's quite ridiculous. There are 4 1Bs in the first round: Pujols, Teixeira, Ortiz (eligible in most leagues) and Derrek Lee. Then there's a few rounds where they're non-existant (not counting 1B-elible Chase Utley, as his value is as a 2B), then it pours on again. Delgado and Helton are solid 3rd round guys, and Sexson, Howard, and Konerko are all great 4th rounders.

Lance Berkman is 1B-eligible, but I'd grab him for an OF - same goes for Adam Dunn.

But at the end of the draft, you still see big contributors left (and by "end", I literally mean the very last round). Guys like Mike Sweeney, Dan Johnson (who I like a whole lot more than his NL-counterpart Nick), Chris Shelton (who should NOT be slidding down that far - a smart owner took him very early in the 11th round last week, and I cannot argue with that), Jay Gibbons and Brad Wilkerson.

Part of me wants to counsel you to really wait until the last minute for a 1B - but then you can't discount the massive numbers the top guys are cranking out. Sexson has near-Ortiz numbers (except for AVG). Take a look at his Runs and RBIs - they're unexpectedly enormous. Give him another year in the AL, and they could possibly increase.

Thursday, March 16, 2006

Fantasy Baseball: How Long Can I Wait For a... Catcher?

New feature, folks! A good portion of drafts are done, but there's still a lot of folks who haven't yet. Personally, I advocate waiting as long as possible to draft, so you can see players emerge from Spring Training (and this year, the WBC). Plus, ST injuries can kill a squad.

Catchers are a mess once again this year. The top ones are going way too early, and people keep drafting Jason Kendall for some reason.

Victor Martinez is being drafted, on average, at #35 - mid 3rd round. That is simply WAY too early. Take Beltran. Take Berkman. PLEASE! Let's look at the numbers from last year and a projection for this year (projections from Rotochamps.com):

Martinez: 73/20/80/0/.305 - 81/23/89/0/.304
Beltran: 83/16/78/17/.266 - 106/30/93/30/.269
Berkman: 76/24/82/4/.293 - 96/30/97/5/.301

You can argue those projections for Beltran are high - but I see a definite improvement upon last year. They're still heads and shoulders above Martinez's numbers.

"But the difference between Martinez and the rest of the catchers makes up for that!" you say. I say you're wrong. Let's now focus our attention to the bottom of the draft, where you're taking your 3rd OF (unless you're smart and shored up all 3 OFers early, like I told you to a month ago), let's say around pick #150, and compare newcomer Kenji Johjima (149) with OFers Aaron Rowand (153) and Kevin Mench (157):

(Note: Johjima's Japanese numbers are unavailable to me at the moment, so we'll go with his Rotochamps.com projections):

Johjima: -/-/-/-/- - 82/21/69/3/.287
Rowand: 77/13/69/16/.270 - 88/16/76/18/.267
Mench: 71/16/78/4/.264 - 70/26/68/3/.276

And to throw out another C I've been heavily targeting the last month, Josh Willingham (also has numbers that are inconsequential from last year):

Willingham: -/-/-/-/- - 65/26/67/7/.259

So take a Catcher from Pool A and an OF from Pool B, or an OF from Pool A and a Catcher from Pool B, and see what the difference is. You're a smart kid, you can do the math.

Final Advice: Varitek isn't being drafted at value. He's usually being picked when I'm strapped for an RP, so I don't get him - but if he's available in Rd. 10, nab him. If Johjima last until Rd. 14, take him. And if you want to look like the smartest owner, wait until the final 3 rounds to take Willingham. He'll be playing 1B or the OF, but has C eligibility.

Tuesday, March 14, 2006

Democracy in Action

Attention all freedom-loving blog readers! I've just discovered a blog-rating website, which I've signed No Pepper Games up for. Knowing that my extensive readership (and by "extensive" I of course mean "all three of you" - thanks, Mom!) is dying to express their commitment by pushing a button, I've included a link. It's over there on the right - where it says "Don't Forget to Vote!"

Fantasy Baseball: The Great Experiment

The Head-to-Head (H2H) format for fantasy baseball is an abomination. It's popularity is due most likely to the influx of fantasy football players who are scared of change, and refuse to try something different (much like my 3 year old nephew). Rotisserie is not broccoli, people! Try it, you WILL like it.

Here's the problem with H2H. It doesn't reflect actual baseball at all. People stream pitchers, ignore entire categories, don't draft ANY pitchers, etc. Sure, sure, Roto is no different in the "not like real baseball at all", but this is different. In Roto, you're forced to focus on all aspects of the game at hand - every category counts. But in H2H, you just need to cover more categories than the other guy.

So what is a winning strategy? In my opinion, you can completely discount starting pitchers. Completely. To prove this, I am undertaking the Great Experiment: I'm taking part in 4 Yahoo Public H2H leagues (competetive). In the draft, I will not draft a single starting pitcher. The only exception is for pitchers that are SP-eligible, but are actually middle relievers or closers.

How do I expect to win without any SPs? I can do this two ways: I can either stream pitchers (which is to shuffle in every starting pitcher from the free agent pool that I can, and win Wins, Strikeouts and Saves (from the many relievers I'll draft), and possibly compete in ERA/WHIP), or just ignore Wins and Ks, and take Saves, ERA and WHIP by just having dominant closers.

What will this accomplish? Hopefully, it will shed some light on the complete worthlessness of the H2H format. It works in football - but not in baseball.

Monday, March 13, 2006

Fantasy Baseball: Yahoo ADP: 151-200

Without further ado, here are the final 50 ranked players in the top 200 of Yahoo roto drafts:

151. B. Wickman 148.9
152. R. Freel 151.3
153. A. Rowand 152.5
154. J. Bonderman 153.4
155. R. Dempster 154.4
156. J. Vázquez 155.9
157. J. Valverde 156.2
158. K. Mench 157.2
159. J. Gomes 157.8
160. P. Fielder 160.1
161. J. Lane 160.1
162. C. Ray 162.1
163. B. Crosby 164.0
164. R. Hernández 164.1
165. C. Capuano 165.0
166. S. Kazmir 166.3
167. M. Mussina 167.0
168. M. González 168.7
169. M. Loretta 168.7
170. G. Jenkins 169.2
171. J. Morneau 171.6
172. J. Borowski 173.2
173. J. Blanton 174.9
174. P. Polanco 176.5
175. M. Clement 177.2
176. J. Westbrook 178.2
177. G. Atkins 178.9
178. L. Overbay 180.4
179. B. Molina 183.0
180. M. MacDougal 183.1
181. A. Harang 183.9
182. S. Hillenbrand 185.5
183. S. Green 187.9
184. C. Guillén 190.0
185. C. Barmes 182.7
186. M. Ellis 192.0
187. J. Weaver 194.8
188. J. Drew 195.9
189. C. Orvella 197.6
190. M. Morris 199.5
191. B. Clark 199.6
192. F. Liriano 200.8
193. E. Santana 201.8
194. C. Young 202.3
195. J. Dye 203.1
196. N. Swisher 203.5
197. M. Barrett 200.6
198. S. Casey 204.1
199. R. Belliard 206.5
200. A. Pierzynski 202.0

Quite a few surprises in there. I don't see Mench producing at that high of a level, nor Prince Fielder. There are a lot of solid middle infield guys going around in here - do not over-value the top ranked players at 2B and SS, since there is a lot of quality later in the draft. Barmes consistently goes late, but Crosby is being grabbed earlier by quite a few owners. Both could produce very very good numbers.

Friday, March 10, 2006

Fantasy Baseball: Yahoo ADP: 101-150

In my promise to bring everyone up to speed on the Top 200 by today, I have to crank these out in 50 player increments. I want to again point out that the second number is the player's average draft position. You can see in this bunch that there is a lot of grouping, and very little differentiation between several players.

101. F. Cordero 101.6
102. J. López 104.6
103. F. García 105.7
104. C. Tracy 106.8
105. É. Rentería 108.6
106. J. Thome 110.2
107. N. Lowry 111.4
108. R. Weeks 112.7
109. C. Crisp 112.9
110. C. Sabathia 113.2
111. A. Huff 114.1
112. T. Hudson 114.3
113. M. Mulder 115.6
114. M. Holliday 116.9
115. J. Garland 118.5
116. D. Turnbow 119.1
117. M. Mora 120.9
118. J. Lackey 121.9
119. D. Davis 123.6
120. J. Lugo 123.8
121. I. Rodríguez 124.1
122. B. Giles 124.5
123. J. Posada 124.5
124. D. Haren 124.9
125. J. Giambi 125.8
126. J. Contreras 126.1
127. B. Jenks 127.9
128. N. Garciaparra 130.1
129. Z. Duke 130.8
130. R. Winn 132.5
131. K. Wood 133.1
132. K. Foulke 137.6
133. T. Iguchi 138.0
134. W. Taveras 138.1
135. L. Hernández 138.6
136. B. Fuentes 139.0
137. T. Hunter 140.5
138. A. Benítez 141.2
139. M. Ordóñez 141.3
140. T. Jones 142.1
141. K. Millwood 142.2
142. T. Gordon 142.4
143. M. Bradley 144.7
144. J. Francoeur 145.4
145. R. Canó 147.1
146. G. Anderson 147.4
147. M. Cain 147.4
148. J. Lieber 147.6
149. K. Johjima 147.8
150. A. Béltre 148.1

My personal favorite picks out of this group are Tracy, Weeks, Huff, Holliday, Haren, Duke and Francouer. All of them have very big potential to contribute much larger numbers to their teams then where they're being drafted.

Thursday, March 09, 2006

Fantasy Baseball: Yahoo ADP: 73-100

The last of the truly reliable closers (and some not-so reliable) are now off the board, and people start taking chances on a mess of injury-prone players. I actually listed a bunch of the injury-prone in an earlier draft, but decided it'd be easier to list the healthy (Myers, Cordero, Blalock, F. Lopez, Varitek, and Cl. Lee). I really don't know what to make of this list - other than tread with caution. Go for upside, avoid injuries (the absolute bane of any fantasy team), and search for a slider. Likely, someone from the previous list may have slid down, or you may see someone in the 100-125 list that you want to reach for. I say go for it.

73. V. Wells 75.1
74. B. Myers 77.9
75. E. Gagne 77.9
76. C. Cordero 78.7
77. J. Smoltz 79.6
78. B. Bonds 79.8
79. H. Blalock 80.5
80. J. Schmidt 82.2
81. B. Zito 82.8
82. P. Burrell 84.8
83. S. Rolen 87.3
84. J. Beckett 87.6
85. B. Webb 88.8
86. T. Glaus 89.1
87. A. Burnett 91.7
88. J. Patterson 92.2
89. F. López 92.8
90. C. Schilling 93.8
91. J. Varitek 95.2
92. J. Isringhausen 95.6
93. T. Hoffman 95.6
94. Cl. Lee 95.8
95. C. Floyd 95.8
96. B. Roberts 96.0
97. K. GriffeyJr 96.5
98. J. Edmonds 97.9
99. E. Guardado 99.6
100. R. Clemens 101.0

Fantasy Baseball: Feeling Like Sheet(s)

Just a quick notice that Ben Sheets left his Spring Training game in the first inning today, feeling pain in the same area he lost playing time to last year. If you're deciding between him and someone like Zambrano, go with the Cub. Or if Sheets is offered in a trade, downgrade him accordingly.

Link

Fantasy Baseball: Yahoo ADP: 49-72

We're getting into the meat of the draft here, so pay attention. It's hard to screw up Rounds 1-4, but it is the next 5 rounds that can really make or break your entire season. There's a lot of variation, and those poor saps who reach for their favorite average player (moron who took Uribe in Rd. 6, I'm looking at you), need a solid performance playing the free agent market to make up for it.

49. J. Pierre 50.8
50. R. Howard 51.5
51. A. Dunn 52.1
52. B. Lidge 53.6
53. G. Sizemore 53.7
54. M. Ensberg 55.6
55. M. Giles 56.9
56. J. Damon 57.9
57. J. Cantú 58.2
58. F. Hernández 58.6
59. Fr. Rodríguez 59.9
60. H. Matsui 60.6
61. S. Podsednik 61.1
62. J. Mauer 62.5
63. B. Wagner 63.1
64. A. Pettitte 64.5
65. C. Jones 67.0
66. B. Colón 67.1
67. J. Nathan 67.3
68. E. Chávez 69.6
69. M. Buehrle 70.9
70. H. Street 71.6
71. J. Peralta 72.8
72. B. Ryan 73.3

Did someone say "closer run"? 6 closers in 24 picks. (That's 25% for the math-impaired and Uribe-picking mouthbreathers out there). All of these pitchers are very good, but Ryan is certainly a step down from everyone else taken. It would seem that Rd. 5 and 6 is "Get a bat, get an arm".

Matsui really surprises me. There couldn't be a more consistent player, and he's good for 30/100/.290 every single year. Mauer is being taken here, which isn't horrible value, but it's still early for a catcher. The guys available in the final two rounds aren't going to kill your team, and wouldn't you rather have Pettitte, Wagner, Street or Ryan on your team? And whoever these people are who are taking Podsednik here are killing themselves. The Almight Stolen Base isn't worth the hit to every single other category with this guy. Let someone else cripple their team with him, and fill an empty 3B slot or take a top pitcher.

Wednesday, March 08, 2006

Fantasy Baseball: Yahoo ADP: 25-48

Sorry for the delay. I'm going to try to get the top 200 out by Friday. (For those looking for an easy way out, Yahoo has posted their top 100 ADPs, but be careful - that includes results from the idiots and filthy masses of the uninformed). This should be much more informative and useful info for everyone.

25. C. Utley 24.8
26. J. Reyes 25.6
27. R. Halladay 26.0
28. J. Kent 32.4
29. A. Ramírez 33.5
30. D. Jeter 33.8
31. C. Delgado 34.2
32. V. Martínez 35.0
33. C. Beltrán 35.4
34. M. Prior 36.1
35. R. Johnson 36.4
36. M. Rivera 38.6
37. T. Helton 38.7
38. J. Rollins 39.6
39. L. Berkman 39.7
40. D. Willis 39.9
41. T. Hafner 40.8
42. C. Lee 42.0
43. R. Furcal 42.6
44. C. Zambrano 44.1
45. R. Harden 47.2
46. R. Sexson 48.5
47. P. Konerko 50.1
48. B. Sheets 50.5


Personal thoughts: Simply put, that's a fantastic place for Utley. If you grab him between 20-25, you're well on your way to doing well (though I do advocate waiting for a 2B sleeper, which will be previewed next week - there is a lot of talent sliding at this position this year). Note also Kent being drafted soon after - people panic with 2B at the top, but you'll see some neglection later in the listings.

Beltran at 35.4 is a mirage. He's been creeping up more and more, to the point where I may need to make a correction of some sort. But not wanting to fiddle with the actual data, that's where he's at. Don't let him get away - he will NOT be seeing the end of Round 3 for the rest of the draft season. I could make a very strong case for taking him as early as mid-2nd round. Do not discount how much pressure the presence of David Wright will alleviate on Beltran.

I wouldn't take Prior or Johnson in those slots. Do I think Randy's done? Absolutely not. In fact, he'll put up solid numbers for 3rd/4th round. But I'd simply rather have Helton or Berkman or Hafner than either of those pitchers (especially Prior).

A lot of people jumping on Harden early. In a keeper, yes. But with his injury concerns, I'd rather go with Sheets, who's right below him.

Finally, there's power coming off the boards here. Howard and Dunn are just off the end of this list at 50 and 51, which you'll see tomorrow. And until then...

Friday, March 03, 2006

Fantasy Baseball: Yahoo ADP: 13-24

Nothing too surprising here:

13. B. Abreu 13.5
14. P. Martínez 14.8
15. M. Tejada 15.4
16. J. Bay 15.9
17. C. Carpenter 18.1
18. I. Suzuki 18.6
19. A. Soriano 19.4
20. G. Sheffield 21.4
21. J. Peavy 21.8
22. R. Oswalt 22.1
23. A. Jones 22.6
24. C. Figgins 24.0


I'm a fan of taking OF early, but that's too early for Jones. I'd also wait on Carpenter. He'll have a great season, but let someone else take him early 2nd round. Ichiro is surprising, but entirely justified there, as are Peavy and Oswalt.

Thursday, March 02, 2006

Fantasy Baseball: Yahoo Average Draft Positions 1-12

And as promised, I present the first part of my findings of average draft positions on Yahoo (all leagues are 12 team, 5x5 Roto). I specifically excluded any drafts where there was an obvious homer, or someone who just plain didn't know what they were doing.

The number after the player's name is their average draft position.

1. Á. Rodríguez 1.1
2. A. Pujols 2.1
3. V. Guerrero 3.5
4. M. Teixeira 4.6
5. M. Ramírez 5.6
6. Jo. Santana 6.5
7. D. Ortiz 7.5
8. D. Lee 7.7
9. M. Young 11.5
10. C. Crawford 12.2
11. Mi. Cabrera 12.6
12. D. Wright 12.9


People seem to be very big fans of Michael Young. I am, but I don't think I could draft him in the first round - there is just too much SS talent out there (I've been getting Crosby and Barmes very late in drafts, and haven't looked back).

And I haven't received a single link yet to acquire more data. The only thing holding these charts down is the fact that they account fairly strongly for drafts that I have drafted in - so there is a strong No Pepper Games bias. The more outside data I get, the better the numbers. So feel free to post those public league links (c'mon, they're public - I'm not out phishing for e-mail addresses).

Fantasy Baseball: Christmas in May (WBC, BP)

I can barely contain myself at work today. We have the World Baseball Classic beginning this evening (God I wish I had TIVO in order to tape these incredibly late broadcasts), Baseball Tonight after midnight, and my Baseball Prospectus just arrived in the mail!

I think I may be leaving work early so I can nerd it up.