No Pepper Games - A Fantasy Baseball Blog

Re:

2011-05-25T20:05:00.000-04:00

No side effects! Only good result!.. http://www.clubmedian.hu/friends_links.php?wCID=69e2

Fantasy Baseball: Who Needs Another League?

2009-03-27T17:54:00.004-04:00

I'm having a little trouble rounding some of my real life friends together to join a league. It's just a very standard 5x5 roto league, with on-base percentage swapped out with batting average. Everything else is Yahoo default. E-mail nopeppergames@gmail.com if you'd like to join.

New Fantasy Concept: Draftbug

2009-03-27T17:40:00.002-04:00

Fellow blogger Alex Zelvin has started up a new fantasy website, called Draftbug.com. Draftbug offers daily fantasy sports contests for real money or play money.

Last week, Draftbug opened its first baseball contest of the season. It's a $100 freeroll contest, open to the first 200 entrants (116 spots are filled so far). The top 20 places will win cash prizes, with 1st place getting $24. Registration for the site and the contest are free! Unlike most Draftbug contests, which only last one day, the freeroll involves picking a team of 10 hitters within a salary cap prior to the start of the season. Points will be scored based on how many home runs your team hits during the month of April. More baseball contests will be opened later this week.

At the starting price of free, I don't see how you could pass this up. I've tooled around the site a bit, and everything seems very straight forward and intuitive to use. I love having an alternative to standard fantasy leagues, especially ones where it's you versus the world. See you at Draftbug.com!

Fantasy Baseball: The Moonlight Gram

2007-04-13T11:01:00.000-04:00

I also want to draw quick attention over to my list of other baseball blogs, as there is a new addition - The Moonlight Gram. They're good at updating their site, contributing regularly and having fun at the same time (all three things I could take a lesson from). So when you faithfully come here to No Pepper Games, are disappointed that I've failed once again to provide you with the funny, click on over to these guys - they aren't nearly as disappointing as I am.

Fantasy Baseball: Daily Prospect Updates

2007-04-13T10:49:00.000-04:00

Keeping up with the daily happenings in Major League Baseball is a tall order for a fantasy owner. And for those who are in deeper keeper leagues, you may be called upon to peer into the strange occurrences in that place known as "minor league baseball". It can be incredibly hard to even keep track of a few names, and remember where to look to find out information about them (unless you subscribe to Baseball America - and even then it's hard).

However, I just received an e-mail from Ben Lipson of TopProspectAlert.com, informing me that he is now providing a free, daily update of all notable performances in the minors. I have no idea how he has the time to do this, nor any clue as to how much he spends annually on energy drinks. Regardless, his sleepless nights are our benefit. You can find his DAILY updated article here: http://www.topprospectalert.com/prospectstats.htm.

Fantasy Baseball: Why We Watch

2007-04-12T10:28:00.001-04:00

I will admit that I don't watch nearly as many games that I can. But I do make it a point to pay attention to ESPN's ticker, I have Yahoo scores at the top of my homepage, and obsess fairly regularly like a good fantasy owner should. I also don't have a huge case of Dice-K fever.

But I did tune in last night to the Seattle-Boston game to see Felix Hernandez dominate the Boston lineup, as well as watch Daisuke Matsuzaka in his first home start. What an incredible game. The media this morning kept using language that would suggest that Dice-K's performance was somehow disappointing, but someone is going to have to speak pretty slowly to get me to understand how giving up 3 runs and 9 baserunners over 7 innings is disappointing. Dice-K had absolutely no control over how feebly Boston's lineup fared against King Felix's 1-hit shutout.

My biggest disappointment is that in none of my leagues was I in a position to draft Hernandez. One of my leaguemates was nice enough to draft him just a few slots before my pick and say, "Yeah, I've been reading your blog." You know who you are.

Fantasy Baseball: Play Ball!

2007-04-02T10:10:00.000-04:00

The long winter is over, and spring has begun.

The 2007 Major League Baseball season began with Jose Reyes grounding out to first, and the first hit was grittily recorded by a tenaciously hustling David Eckstein as the Mets went on to pound Chris Carpenter for the win last night.

I can't tell you how excited about this season I am. I've drastically reduced the number of leagues I'm in this year, and I feel good about all of them. (Last year I was drawn entirely too thin, and suffered a bit of burnout by August.)

I've also become a bit of a stock-watcher over at RotoHog. The prices are fascinating to me. Who would have thought that Albert Pujols would have skyrocketed that much overnight? Why haven't people caught on to the fact that SP-eligible Jonathon Papelbon is the most valuable player in the league (it's a points league, folks - you want to maximize the number of points per inning pitched, and with the scoring setup, closers dominate from the mound. You want as many relief innings pitched as you can possibly get, and Papelbon gets you an extra arm to do so. This is why I creamed the opposition back when Danny Graves was an SP-eligible closer.).

Fantasy Baseball: S-Words for $500

2007-03-16T00:20:00.000-04:00

Set your VCRs ... er ... Tivos, for you cool kids out there.

Date: Tuesday, March 27
Time: 12:00pm (noon) EDT
Where: ESPN

What: The Baseball Tonight crew is going to hold their fantasy draft. And this is bound to be hilarious. Remember when John Kruk predicted Randy Johnson would win 30 games in 2005? Yeah, those were special times. And it's bound to happen again.

Here's what's going to happen: The first round is going to be absolutely ridiculous, as Kruk, Ravech and Gammons are going to display absolutely no insight into how fantasy baseball works, but basing this episode on fantasy ball knowing that the concept should get some exposure.

Predictions:

Peter Gammons is going to kill all of them (if there is an actual draft). I doubt he plays any fantasy baseball, but I imagine he understands the concept of "scarcity", "upside" and "math". He also has an encyclopedic understanding of every aspect of the game, a trait held by all sports-loving cyborgs that walk this Earth.
John Kruk will take Joe Mauer with his first pick. If they don't draft, he'll say that "Mauer is a no-brain first round pick. He will then name about 7 more catchers that would be solid players to have on your team, citing this as evidence for "scarcity".
Karl Ravech will do a decent job, as he's the most likely to have been in a league before and done well. He will look disdainfully towards Kruky after all of Kruk's inexplicable picks.
Someone will name David Eckstein as a sleeper, as his grit and determination are important characteristics to have in a fantasy bench player.
Someone else will pick Gary Matthews, Jr. under the false understanding that making one incredible catch a year somehow contributes to your fantasy standings.

I cannot wait. And the best part is that at no point will they actually take advantage of the resources of ESPN and call on Funston or Karabell to join in. Listen, this didn't have to be an episode devoted to fantasy baseball - but it is. There are a lot of discussions that can be had comparing fantasy production and actual production, projections, position battles in spring training, etc. I can hope, but I have my doubts.

Fantasy Baseball: It's Good To Be The...

2007-03-08T22:14:00.000-05:00

Gah!

Sorry, but there is no more apt picture to use when talking about King Felix. After giving up the Whoppers and reporting to camp much slimmer than his previous self, Felix Hernandez is poised this year. And since Nando di Fino recently took him #9 overall (his take on the draft) in the mock draft I took part in, I've been giving it some thought, and have given him a second look.

Felix is currently being taken 92nd overall in ESPN drafts, 15th among SPs. That's Round 8 territory for a 12-team league. Is it justified? Last year's numbers indicate that might be about right, if you look only at ERA (4.52) and WHIP (1.34). He's a Mariner, so you know his Win-Loss record isn't great, and that's not going to change much. But let's look deeper:

K:BB - 176:60 - WOW! Over 3:1 K:BB rate is amazing for a starting pitcher.
Groundball Rate: 58.9% - This isn't a well-known stat, so many don't realize how kick-ass this number is. Mid-40s is pretty good. High-40s is awesome. Breaking into the 50s turns a lot of heads. 58.9%?!? This will go down a bit - but not greatly. PECOTA predicts a slight drop to 57.0%.
Age - 21 - I find it hard to hold a lower-than average ERA/WHIP against a 20 year old in the majors. He's clearly worked hard over the post-season, and has excellent peripherals. Is this a reason to take him as a Top 10 SP? No, not really.

Now, I'm not taking him in the first five rounds. There are plenty of better value picks before then. But with the way that SPs have been dropping the last few years (I took Carpenter in the FOURTH round in that mock draft), I'd make back-to-back SP picks in Rounds 5-6 and make Felix one of them. If Felix is averaging 92nd at ESPN, I'll push him way up to #60 and take a chance.

Here's the deal - you're reading this article because you do your homework. You already have an edge going into the draft. A few calculated risks focused around a research-based approach is going to help you dominate your league. If there isn't anyone glaringly obvious on your draft board remaining and Felix Hernandez remains, go with the pure unadulterated talent and have it your way.

Fantasy Baseball: RotoHog Fantasy Baseball

2007-03-06T11:41:00.000-05:00

There's a brand new form of fantasy baseball out there, and I'm really excited about it. RotoHog.com is offering something fresh to challenge and stimulate our baseball brains - cash money. They're offering $100,000 to the top performing owner. It's a global-market based system, where a player's value is derived from market supply and demand. And the league is FREE.

"But those leagues have been around forever!" Yes, yes they have. But this is different - those other leagues (like Sporting News fantasy baseball) allowed everyone to have the same players, just so long as you were willing to pay the price. RotoHog limits the amount of players available - the key "supply" side of the equation.

How it works: You no longer have to worry about organizing you and your 11 friends together in a specific time and place. You draft when YOU are available to draft. Each draft is compromised of 12 team owners, regardless of which league they are in. Each draft has a full complement of players to draft. If the players you want to draft are taken by other owners, you can purchase those players on the open market from other owners. You then compete on a number of levels - against your league (and you can join as many leagues as you like), and against everyone else in RotoHog. It's a points-based league, so all team performance is easily comparable across the entire site.

Again, it's free. Take some time to check out the FAQ, the instructional video, and definitely make sure you do a mock draft simulation to familiarize yourself with the controls.

RotoHog.com leagues are open, and begin drafting next week. Feel free to use the referral code of "NoPepperGames" (no spaces).

NoPepperGames: Franchise Owners Needed

2007-03-06T10:26:00.000-05:00

A casual franchise league I'm in is in need of a few owners (five). It's a 6x6 Head-to-Head league with 16 teams. Each team is assigned to a particular MLB team, and you have the rights to all the players that were within that system at the beginning of the 2006 season. There is a supplemental draft before each season. There are a few other miscellaneous rules that we can fill you in on if you're interested.

Further league information can be found in this thread.

The teams available are: Toronto Blue Jays, Chicago Cubs, St. Louis Cardinals, Houston Astros, and the Philadelphia Phillies. Their current rosters can be found in the linked thread above.

Fantasy Baseball: Mock Draft Analysis (Rds 11-24)

2007-03-04T21:55:00.000-05:00

Round 11
I'm a very big fan of Cole Hamels this year, and that pick really threw me off. I scrambled a bit, had a hole at 2B, and went with Kendrick. I definitely could have waited a round, because everyone after me passed on Kinsler, and he was a great pick in Rd. 12. I like the Papelbon pick here very much - if he doesn't excel as a starter (and if he does, this is a steal), the Sox may likely move him to closer (and if he does, this is a steal). Uncertainty in Papelbon's case is an illogical drop in his fantasy value. Take note. Best Pick: Cole Hamels Worst Pick: Howie Kendrick

Round 12
Man this was a great round. A lot of people targeting players they seem to have their eye on, and are willing to take a chance on. Three really stand out - Encarncion, Kinsler and Hill. These are all players I'd love to have on my team - but I went with Lidge, who I really like for a return to greatness (Albert's HR is two years removed - get it out of your head, Brad). Best Pick: Ian Kinsler/Cole Hamels Worst Pick: Michael Cuddyer

Round 13
Look at the injury histories here! I'm not injury adverse, but it's interesting to see how these picks clump together. Piazza is in a perfect situation to excel, and a reason why we should think about passing on the top 3 catchers - they go too soon, and the next tier gets taken MUCH later. Best Pick: Mike Piazza Worst Pick: Eric Gagne (I'm just not sold on his 15 IP in the last 2 years) My Pick: Coco Crisp - more balance, and an underrated OF option

Round 14
At this point in the draft, I started getting nervous - my "no 1B until everything is filled" strategy relies on going with Adrian Gonzalez or Conor Jackson (or other late options). I'm not sure how well that translates in H2H. It also prevents you from grabbing a top corner option for your Util spot. I think Gonzalez is a great player, but is a bit more of a Roto specialist. Best Pick: Eric Byrnes (I love this guy, and he's always a late option in the OF) Worst Pick: Freddy Sanchez (he's an H2H non-entity) My Pick: Adrian Gonzalez

Round 15
Say, that reminds me... Felipe Lopez is scheduled to start at 2B, and is an excellent option there. With everyone grabbing SSs so soon in drafts, Lopez is typically left on the table and sits there. Keep that in mind if your league is going 2B-heavy. This round is also a good example of how many position players there are this year, and that reaching for a few SPs early doesn't short you badly on offense - we see excellent picks here for C, 1B, 2B and OF. Best Pick: Kenji Johjima Worst Pick: Adam LaRoche My Pick: Adam LaRoche - not that it was a terrible pick, it's just that there weren't any other options for worst.

Round 16
People are starting to fill holes. I like the Wainwright pick - there's a lot of potential there. However, I'm not sold on Willingham. People loved him as a Catcher last year, and he did put up very good numbers. You can count on close to 25 HRs and 85 RBIs. But I'm not sitting with a hole at OF counting on him to be there. Best Pick: Jonny Gomes (he's the perfect pick for Nando's H2H strategy here) Worst Pick: Mike Cameron My Pick: Rich Harden

Round 17
I have been loading up on youth players - and it could either bite me in the ass or pay off very big. Chris Young (Ari-OF) is going to make a solid run for NL ROY, and Rd. 17 is not that big of a risk with all my starters in place. There are still some good closer options taken, but I'm not biting. One bad outing can ruin a week in H2H. It's better to punt saves than to jeopardize ERA and WHIP. Best Pick: AJ Burnett Worst Pick: Joe Borowski My Pick: Chris B. Young

Round 18
Another sleeper round - every 3 rounds since Rd. 9 it looks like. I was all sleepered out, and went for pure power - Frank Thomas. He surprises every year, and he's devalued every year. However, I wavered between him and Kei Igawa, and Igawa was taken in the next round - I think Frank would have still been available. There is no reason to wait on Igawa - I think people are just seeing how far he'll fall nowadays, and you should be the one to elicit the "Dammit!"s, not the one who's shouting them. Best Pick: Alex Gordon Worst Pick: Morgan Ensberg (not with Gordon on the board) My Pick: Frank Thomas

Round 19
This round is 50/50 on good/bad options. Igawa was robbery in Round 19, and so is Russell Martin. He's not going to put up numbers like McCann, but he's a similar comparison to where McCann was being taken last year. The Otsuka pick is odd, but it's a hancuff, and a smart one at that. Best Pick: Kei Igawa Worst Pick: Ted Lilly My Pick: Kelvim Escobar

Rounds 20-24
Steals: Mark Prior (Rd. 20), Salomon Torres (Rd. 21), Ivan Rodriquez (Rd. 22), Curtis Granderson (Rd. 22), Akinori Iwamura (Rd. 24)
General Thoughts: There are still players available that will work in a roster to fill in for injuries or off days. There are some stat-specialists like Podsednik and Shields.
Surprises: No one took a flier on either Homer Bailey or Philip Hughes. I'm not sure in a 10 team league whether that should be expected or not.

My Final Picks:
Anthony Reyes: The Cardinals are going to win a lot of games, and Reyes is currently in line to chalk up a number of those. His peripherals are on the upswing, but I'm not tied to Anthony.
John Patterson: There is no risk in the 21st Round, only upside.
Taylor Tankersley: The potential to close, and has excellent support ERA and WHIP numbers.
Ray Durham: Are you kidding me? If I need to compete in HR at any time, he's an excellent option to back up Kendrick.
Pedro Martinez: His recovery seems to be a bit ahead of schedule, but I'm not holding my breath. He's going straight on my DL, opening a roster slot. When/If he gets back, he's going to continue putting up excellent WHIP/ERA numbers, and decent Ks.

All in all, I'm quite pleased with my team. I think I got out-drafted, but there were people getting paid a lot more than I in this league. That's not exactly a strong excuse, but it works for me! There were a few of my picks that I thought were really good that didn't get a reaction, a few that I didn't that did. The only real surprises came from ESPN/TMR, but those were based more purely off of projections rather than taking into account average draft positions. I feel that my team is more strongly suited for a H2H league, while some of the better rosters may not.

Either way, I had a great time drafting this team and being involved in this. I want to thank everyone involved

Fantasy Baseball: Mock Draft Analysis (Rds 1-10)

2007-03-02T00:07:00.000-05:00

I was recently asked to participate in an experts' mock draft this evening, sponsored by FantasyInsiderOnline.com. Not only was this my first major draft of the year, it was certainly my first expert draft of my career. I want to quickly thank FIO.com for organizing this and inviting me, and everyone that participated. It was a wonderfully competitive draft, and I'm interested to see how this turns out, even though we're not playing it out.

The Participants and Draft Order:

1 – Joe Ribando of Insider Baseball (www.insiderbaseball.com)

2 – Ted Kasten of Draft Dynamix (www.draftdynamix.com)

3 – Geoff Stein of Mock Draft Central (www.mockdraftcentral.com)

4 – Brad Stewart of MLB Front Office (www.mlbfo.blogspot.com)

5 – Tim Miller of Fantasy Insider Online (www.fantasyinsideronline.com)

6 – Me!

7 – Matt Hinzpeter of Fantasy Insider Online (www.fantasyinsideronline.com)

8 – Jason Pitts of Fantasy Baseball Mafia (www.fantasybaseballmafia.com)

9 – Nando Di Fino of Talented Mr. Roto/ESPN Fantasy Sports (www.talentedmrroto.com)

10 – Paul Greco of Fantasy Baseball Guy (www.fantasybaseballguy.com)

The results can be found here.

Round One
I'm as eager to hear about Nando's draft theory as you are, and I'll link to it once he posts (edit: Nando explains himself). He said in-draft that he came prepared with a specific plan, and if Felix Hernandez is at the top of that list, we'll see how that goes. Ryan Howard really dropped, and FB.com got an absolute steal. Best Pick: Ryan Howard Worst Pick: Felix Hernandez My Pick: Carl Crawford - My goal going into this draft was to strongly compete in Runs, Stolen Bases and Batting Average. Crawford gives me all of those, and the chance to steal HRs occassionally.

Round Two
I really debated taking Travis Hafner, but he just didn't fit my plan. Plus, Miggy is consistently ranked higher, including on my board. His superior batting is going to consistently win me AVG each week. No big surprises here. Best Pick: Vladimir Guerrero Worst Pick: Manny Ramirez My Pick: Miguel Cabrera

Round Three
And let the shortstop race begin! Half of the starting shortstops are gone by the end of this round, and that's mind-boggling. It's a 10 team league - SSs do not need to move this quickly. FB.com wins the day again with an incredibly big upside pick. Best Pick: Andruw Jones Worst Pick: Hanley Ramirez My Pick: Jason Bay - Jones or Wells may have been better, but again, I'm going for balance.

Round Four
He slid, and he slid and he slid. So I took Carpenter, and he was followed up by 7 more pitchers within the next 15 picks. People start fleshing out their particular draft strategies, as a few reaches are being made. Bobby Abreu is taken, while Coco Crisp and Eric Byrnes await their turn 9 rounds later, and Delmon and Damon 5 rounds later. Best Pick: Chris Carpenter Worst Pick: Bill Hall - Nando could have had Utley and Felix in Rds 1 and 4, instead of Felix and Bill Hall.

Round Five
I wanted Furcal - but Geoff at Mock Draft Central stole him (just like he ended up stealing about 8 of my picks - great draft, Geoff). However, Young's higher AVG should make up for his lack of SBs. Peavy and Webb here are bargains, even though Inside Baseball accidentally hit "draft" on Peavy. Best Pick: Brandon Webb Worst Pick: Aramis Ramirez - great player, maybe a round too early. My Pick: Michael Young

Round Six
4 closers - and I think they're all justified. Ray may have been a better pick than Victor, catchers really dropped in this draft. However, I don't have closers regarded that highly in H2H leagues (20 IP min.), so Victor won out. I have Sheets higher than Smoltz, but both are ranked around here. Best Pick: Ben Sheets Worst Pick: Nick Swisher - no offense to Nando, but Swisher could be had much later. It's certainly going to drive traffic to his site in the near future! My Pick: Victor Martinez

Round Seven
Cano and Roberts are on a small 2nd tier at 2B, and both lasted quite a while. I've advocated to wait even longer, but this is not a bad time to grab these guys. Now was the time for a reliever, but Kazmir is mocking me right after my Cordero pick. Best Pick: Hideki Matsui Worst Pick: Chad Cordero My Pick:

Chad

Cordero

Round Eight
The 10th SS off the board is Troy Glaus. He may not be eligible in every league, but damn that's a sexy pick. Interesting picks here - Draft Dynamix has forsaken AVG with his Dunn pick, but going back to look at his previous rounds, and he looks to have been in the perfect position to take him. Best Pick: Ryan Zimmerman Worst Pick: Rickie Weeks My Picks: Jeremy Bonderman

Round Nine
What an interesting round. 3 'toolsy' players in Rios, Damon and Young, 5 great pitchers with a lot to prove in 2007, along with Helton and Ordonez who may be on the decline, but can put up Round 5 numbers. Best Pick: Todd Helton Worst Pick: Todd Helton (see what I did there?) My Pick: Delmon Young - the kid has everything I need for this team - SBs, a great average, and some power

Round Ten
My Bonderman pick doesn't look as great as there are so many quality SPs left on the board. However, Jered Weaver in Rd. 10 is a fantastic bargain. But with all these choices, I think Verlander's huge increase in IPs last year is going to hurt that pick. Best Pick: Gary Sheffield Worst Pick: Justin Verlander My Pick: Jered Weaver

Fantasy Baseball: AL Late Round Picks

2007-02-25T21:47:00.000-05:00

In an effort to unite the clans...er...fantasy baseball blogosphere, Dom the Baseball Don over at Fantasy Baseball Island put together a list of Late Round NL picks, and I'm going to offer a few AL picks:

1. Kei Igawa (NYY-SP): I think that Philip Hughes is going to be a very popular pick this year, and will rise a few rounds earlier than he should. But in the few mock drafts I've done, Igawa has been available well into the late late rounds. Both Yankee hurlers are good options for wins, but Igawa may represent a bigger bargain.

2. Dustin Pedroia (Bos-2B): Someone has to play second base for the Red Sox, and all the platoons are usually dominated by the OF for them. He looks to be a Loretta-type player, much better suited for points leagues, but will provide a decent batting average boost. (For those set at 2B, maybe Kevin Youkilis at 3B is more up your alley.)

3. Ian Kinsler (Tex-2B): However nice Pedroia may be, Kinsler is a much surer bet. However, he's also much more likely to be taken in the mid-rounds, which is why I'm listing him later than Dustin. A very 'toolsey' player, Kinsler is poised to produce both power and speed for your roster.

4. Mark Teahen (KC-3B): Being out-hyped by future phenom Alex Gordon is not a bad thing for those looking for draft day bargains. Teahen showed considerable talent finishing off the season in '06, and will feature in an increasingly talented, underappreciated and overlooked Royals lineup. Offering a bit of speed and 20+ HR possibility to go with a smooth swing, here is yet another reason not to reach for a top 5 3B at the top of a draft.

5. Wily Mo Pena (Bos-OF): Still in a bit of a platoon situation, if he manages to get 500+ ABs could very well hit 35 HRs. He could also near .300 AVG, but look for something more around .280. (Strikes out WAY too much for points league consideration.)

Fantasy Baseball: They May Not Be Real, But They're Spectacular

2007-02-22T14:57:00.000-05:00

I've been over at FakeTeams.com lately, and they have an excellent group of contributors. Multiple articles per day, a strong viewership and active comments all make for a great site. It's a very good mix of daily advice, highlights of baseball articles from other sources, and original insight. Don't forget to tell 'em NoPepperGames sent ya!

Fantasy Baseball 101: Blood, Sweat and Tiers

2007-02-21T21:45:00.000-05:00

Chase Utley (Phi-2B) went fourth overall in a recent expert mock draft. Joe Mauer (Min-C) then went 18th overall later in the next round. We all know the importance of these players, and how much they loom over the talent far below them at their respective positions. We also know that there were many players taken after these picks that will provide much better numbers, but at different, “deeper” positions. But at what point do you decide that the draft urgency between Joe Mauer and Victor Martinez is greater than that of the player at the top of your list (and the next guy at that player’s position that will be available when the draft comes back around), and how do you put yourself in a position to utilize this information?

The answer is simple – tier your rankings.

Having cut my fantasy teeth in fantasy football, and being in a long-running baseball points league, tiering my rankings is a necessity. However, it’s much tougher in a Rotisserie league, where the value of SB production must be directly compared to RBI production. Putting a direct numerical value to these figures would involve a great amount of effort – effort I simply don’t have.

Err…what?

That’s right – I’m not going to do it. Coming up with my own rankings is pointless, redundant, time-consuming and redundant. Why? Because people far smarter than I am have beaten me to it, and do it far better than I could possibly dream of. Go to a bookstore, go to amazon.com, run a search on “fantasy baseball rankings”, or go to the fantasy baseball website of your choice (but come back!), and get some rankings – any rankings will do, just so long as they’re relevant. If you find a set of rankings that includes auction values, even better. Now go through these rankings, and divide them by position (for multi-eligible players, assign them to the most scarce position (see Ranking Positional Depth for insight on this). Whenever there is a significant difference between players, draw a line between them.

“What’s your definition of ‘significant difference’?” This too is somewhat subjective. Everyone here in the blogosphere is working on that – do the same research you’ve been doing that found you here reading my ramblings. Check the mock drafts over at www.mockdraftcentral.com and see where the breaks are. Make notes as to how much of a gap this represents. The difference between Utley and Cano/Roberts is much larger than the difference between Mauer/Martinez/McCann and the rest of the catchers. Avoid making too many tiers – three is a good goal (4 or 5 for OF and SP).

When it comes draft day, trends emerge. Fantasy football veterans should be very familiar with the term “run on kickers” or “run on defense” or on tight ends. The same thing happens in baseball – especially with catchers and closers. But occasionally, you’ll witness runs on deeper positions. A more recent expert mock draft saw seven shortstops taken in the first two rounds (15 team league). This is absolutely insane. There are two good picks in these – Jose Reyes (the first taken) and Raphael Furcal (the last taken). “I've never seen a run in a draft that early in my nearly 12 years in fantasy,” remarked Brad Evans of Yahoo! Fantasy Sports. “Typically, I tend to avoid position runs and when shortstops flew off the draft board I tried to concentrate on who were the best available players regardless of position at the time. Usually, you can slip a golden puck pass the goalie in those situations. Travis Hafner with the 7th pick in the 2nd round was just that.”

Boiled down to its basics, your goal is to either recognize comparable talent further down your tier and wait on it, or to draft the final player on a tier. The tough part is realizing that you’ll be working with eight sets of tiers and having to juggle them within a time-limit. Evans succeeded in drafting one of the top teams in that draft because he avoided that ridiculous run on SSs (and a later run on closers).

NoPepperGames: Chomping at the Bit

2007-02-17T19:47:00.000-05:00

Here at NoPepperGames headquarters, the staff has been noticing a huge increase in the amount of traffic. This is due largely to a number of great fantasy baseball blogs out there that have added my link to their sites. I cannot thank Fantasy Baseball Guy, The Waiver Wire, and Fantasy Baseball Island (and soon Lenny Melnick) enough for their contributions.

However nice it is being linked to, and how much it leads viewership increases, all of this means very little if there isn't a product here for you to consume. I dropped off the map mid-season last year, but am positive that this new picture of Cal Ripken hanging next to my desk is all that's standing between me and a consistent level of bloggery. That, and the fact that I'm no longer free-basing horse tranquilizers.

Anyway, if there are any questions you'd like to submit (draft strategy, fantasy team analysis, draft analysis, sleeper suggestions, the color of my eyes) feel free to e-mail me (link on the right).

Fantasy Baseball: Gentlemen, Start Your (Web) Engines!

2007-02-16T11:00:00.000-05:00

Today is the day Yahoo! opens up their fantasy baseball leagues. They've delayed it a day in order to install some new fancy accoutrements, so we'll see how those work out. With ESPN.com switching to free leagues, I hope the competition forces them to offer some of the nice features they've had in the PLUS leagues for free.

I noticed that ESPN is offering Head-to-Head points-based leagues, which is (in my opinion) the only way to play a H2H league (but is still a fair ways off from regular Rotisserie, which is the absolute way to be playing fantasy baseball).

Yahoo hasn't dropped the green flag yet, but here's hoping you get a dandy draft time.

Fantasy Baseball: Ranking Position Depth

2007-02-10T17:40:00.000-05:00

My 2B rankings discussion of yesterday may be a bit surprising to people (if so, please comment - I'd love to hear some input). I was having a similar discussion regarding the depth and shallowness of the other positions for fantasy baseball, and did some number tinkering. For reference, I used numbers derived from last year's player statistics, projected into a standard points league (detailed at the bottom of this post).

Taking the top 300* hitters (sorry, no pitchers or DHs here - the pitching numbers don't marry well as a direct comparison in points leagues, and the DHs are too few), you get the following standard deviations within those positions. (For those unfamiliar with a standard deviation, it's a rough statistical calculation of how much members of a group vary amongst themselves. If a group all score very similar points, that group will have a very low standard deviation. If the difference between players is great, then their standard deviation will be larger.)

1B	149.0868
SS	144.6618
OF	125.9941
C	119.4956
3B	107.5955
2B	103.2491

*Note: There are 3 Utils of note here (Ortiz, Hafner and Thomas). To fit them in, I'm actually putting them into every category to raise each StDev even

Whoa, what are the Firstbasemen doing up so high?!? Well, when you factor in how unbelievably well Pujols, Howard and Ortiz performed, they really skew the numbers. Plus, once you get beyond the 20th 1B, things really spiral downward. And the high score for SSs seem to be in line with early expert mock drafts, where 8-9 SSs are being drafted before Round 7. So let's focus in a bit, and take just the starters (okay, top 15, 40 for OFs) for a 12 team league:

C	91.97971
2B	77.91002
OF	72.2821
1B	71.14352
3B	64.33469
SS	62.42214

Here's where putting the Utils starts to skew things a bit - take a look at those Catchers! Taking them out gets the following:

1B	69.7932
OF	69.03502
3B	64.33469
SS	53.29755
C	53.02394
2B	49.30079

So what does this mean - grab a 1B as soon as possible? Not necessarily - but it demonstrates a number of things:

1. 2B is a much more consistent category than thought. Utley is still king, and there's a big gap, but once you get beyond that, there's not much variation. (An Utley-free list drops 2B to 34.2.)
2. 1B has incredibly talent at the top. (Without Pujols and Howard, that number drops to 48.1.)
3. OF is consistently mislabelled as a "deep" position. Feel free to wait on your #3, but your #1 and #2 better be good to be competitive.
4. People are drafting SSs with a bit too much enthusiasm. If 8-9 SSs are going in the first 7 rounds, why would you reach for one? Spend your time upgrading your usual SP or OF, and wait for these shallower position players later in the draft.

And don't forget - if you're in a Roto league, these projections MUST be taken with a grain of salt. Keeping track of how you're doing in particular categories is imperative, and points-league rankings do not reflect these differences.

My Points League Setup:
Singles, Walks, RBIs and Runs: 1 pt
Double, Stolen Bases, Sacrifice: 2 pts
Triple: 3 pts
Home Run: 4 pts
Strikeout: -1 pt
Caught Stealing: -2 Pts

Fantasy Baseball: 2007 Second Basemen Draft Strategy

2007-02-09T16:11:00.000-05:00

So it seems apparent to everyone that second base is the shallowest position on draft day. Experts have been saying, we've been saying, so it must be true, right? Certainly by looking at last year's numbers, it would certainly seem that way.

But let's take a look. A reputable online fantasy site is currently ranking them thusly (auction values deleted):

1. Chase Utley, Phillies
2. Brian Roberts, Orioles
3. Robinson Cano, Yankees
4. Brandon Phillips, Reds
5. Rickie Weeks, Brewers
6. Howie Kendrick, Angels
7. Dan Uggla, Marlins
8. Tadahito Iguchi, White Sox
9. Josh Barfield, Indians
10. Jeff Kent, Dodgers
11. Marcus Giles, Padres
12. Ray Durham, Giants
13. Ian Kinsler, Rangers
14. Jorge Cantu, Devil Rays
15. Luis Castillo, Twins
16. Orlando Hudson, Diamondbacks
17. Jose Lopez, Mariners
18. Jose Castillo, Pirates

Certainly, after Utley, everyone else paled in comparison. But after Utley, was there really all that much difference between these players? If I miss out on drafting Utley, am I hosed? No, I really don't think so. All of those players between #2-9 could put up nearly identical numbers. If Kent and Giles return healthy and play 140 games, they could put up similar numbers. If Kinsler is as good as they say, he could put up 20-20 numbers. (I have no idea why Durham is listed so highly.) I think Cantu is in for a better year than last year, and Castillo (the Luis flavor) is always a good source of SBs. Lopez is a potential to breakout as well.

So while none of those guys are going to put up Chase Utley numbers in '07, they all are going to be good go-to players. And in '08, we could be saying "Get your good 1B while you can, because the 2Bs are identical from #1-10."

NoPepperGames: Buck O'Neil for HoF

2006-07-26T17:15:00.000-04:00

Normally, Jeff Passan's Yahoo Sports column is an interesting read. Today, the article "Biking for Buck" is an essential read. I'll let Jeff's words regarding the four individuals biking from Seattle to Kansas City speak for themselves.

Actually, I'll go a bit further. I just donated a small $10 donation to their cause. It seems the four are running out of money, and have just 10 more days to get to Kansas City. Their website, www.ThanksBuck.com, accepts PayPal donations. Any extra funds will be directed to the Buck O'Neil Education and Research Center, a most worthy cause.

So I challenge my incredibly small (but loyal!) readership to match my commitment, and forward this on to the rest of your fantasy leagues. Having had met Buck O'Neil in person is an honor I will always remember - he's an incredible man, whose omission from last year's Hall of Fame inductions will forever be a mar on the game of baseball, at least until rectified.

NoPepperGames: What A-Rod Needs to Do

2006-07-03T20:33:00.000-04:00

Yankees fans have continued to show what utter jerks they are and always have been. They boo Alex Rodriguez when he gets his Player of the Month award. They boo him when he hits homeruns. You know what, Alex? Screw them. You don't need to put up with fan behavior like that. But what to do? You have a $252 million contract, and the odds of any team not named "Yankees" or "Red Sox" will be able to take it on are slim to none. But I have a solution for you:

1. Take a page out of the Bill Gates/Warren Buffett notebook - establish a large foundation in your name to promote the cause of your choice. (Yes, I realize there is an Alex Rodriguez Foundation started by A-Rod in 1998 - but its based and operated solely in Miami, doesn't have a website, and has little to no media exposure (as per Google hits).) Make that cause anything - helping Hispanics graduate high school, saving the whales, curing AIDS, building affordable housing, whatever.

2. Make a short list of baseball markets that are most in need of what your newfound foundational mission focuses on. Take cities off the list that maybe don't need a shortstop or thirdbaseman all that much.

3. Tell those teams that the portion of your salary they can't pay, they can defer to your foundation with new philanthropic dollars (instead of just reshuffling already dedicated donational dollars). You'll receive your full $252 million (like you can spend that much all on yourself), the team will get a tax break on their donation, and you'll get to play shortstop again!

A Not-So-In-Depth Analysis On How This Is the Year of the Free Agent Pickup Pitcher

2006-06-15T14:39:00.000-04:00

The first Spice Rack Submission of the 2006 season is from loyal reader (when there's actually something to read) Josh:

Jonathan Papelbon, Tom Glavine, Bronson Arroyo, Kenny Rogers, Aaron Harang, Brad Penny, Chris Young, Jose Contreras, Justin Verlander, Josh Johnson, Ervin Santana, Wandy Rodriguez, Vicente Padilla, Tony Armas, Ian Snell, Jered Weaver, Jeff Francis, David Bush, Casey Janssen, Enrique Gonzalez, Jake Westbrook, Paul Byrd, Matt Cain, Aaron Cook, Jason Jennings, Ricky Nolasco, Mike O'Connor, Daniel Cabrera, Erik Bedard, Taylor Buchholz, John Rheinecker, Alay Soler, Cole Hamels, James Shields, Boof Bonser, Zach Miner...

Just 36 reasons why this year in fantasy baseball should be the season where drafting nothing but hitters and picking up the pitching scraps pays off the most. In this group are resurgent veterans, young guys breaking out, and rookies with more staying power than usual, and you have to wonder what the heck the deal is. It's also a particularly good year for keeper leagues with loose rookie pickup rules because guys like Verlander, Jered Weaver, Hamels and Bonser could end up being the staples of your rotation for years to come that you happened to get for free!

The most disturbing trend of this year in fantasy baseball is of course that there doesn't seem to be a single Colorado Rockie NOT worth owning! Is this bizarro land?! They have figured it out! I'm just glad I snapped up Jason Jennings and Jeff Francis while I could!

~Note from NoPepper: Excellent work, Josh. However, you get points deducted for mentioning Bonzer (Min-SP) without using "Boof" as many times as you possibly can. Also, no Liriano? Billingsley (who pitches this week)? But, there are some excellent large league names in there. Keep 'em coming!

Fantasy Baseball: Saved!

2006-06-07T10:52:00.001-04:00

No, this will not be about the Colorado Rockies and their newly-announced hiring/scouting policy. I have some pretty strong feelings about this, but I'll let their 28-30 record speak for itself.

I will, however, keep it within the NL West. Last night, Eric Gagne earned his first save since last June. I don't believe he's available in many leagues. I recommend selling him as soon as you can. We've seen plenty of saves come out of the free agent pool in fantasy this year (like every year). Names like Kenny Ray, Tyler Walker, JJ Putz, Akinori Otsuka, and (most valuably) Jonathan Papelbon.

The name I suggest you target is Alex Rios. The kid is for real, has been picked up in most leagues from the FA pool as a 3rd or 4th OF (I have him as a Utility player in a few leagues), and quietly (very quietly) is putting together a great season.

A Few Random Surprises

2006-05-21T23:14:00.000-04:00

Has anyone noticed who has the ML league in triples at this point in the season? No? Take a moment and go check - I'll wait here for you.

...

Did you check? No, seriously - go give it a look.

That's right - Steve Finley. Previously of Steve Finley - Abner Doubleday's Mentor fame. Jurassic Steve has 7 triples on the season right now. That's unbelievable! Can it continue? Absolutely not!

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Scott Kazmir has apparently gotten over his problem of giving up too many walks. He's 6-2, with a 1.38 WHIP. He's still only 22 years old, and needs to be traded for in every league you're in - especially keeper leagues.

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I targeted Felipe Lopez in as many leagues as I could this year. But I did so expecting a legitimate run at 20/20 - not 20/50. I don't see any reason he can't keep this up, especially if Freel is going to remain under-utilized.

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Juan Cruz is the devil. This Jekyl & Hyde routine is enough to give anyone fits. Clearly, he's extremely talented. Except when he's giving up oodles of runs in a matter of pitches. If you have room, stash him - but don't expect too much. At this point, if you need pitching help, it can't hurt to play a little buy-low.

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Is Miquel Cabrera the most underrated player in the league? His HRs are low (6), but he's still hitting .327. He'll get his 33 HRs, don't worry. He may end up with just 92 RBIs and 95 Runs, but he's someone to target right now.

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Jeremy Hermida is secretly undercover in a gypsy conclave, and not on the DL for a hip flexor. Otherwise, how can you explain his 2 month absence? He's never coming back - he's reading palms and telling fortunes while protecting America from the horrors of carny folk.

It's Not You, It's Me

2006-05-21T23:07:00.000-04:00

Apologies to all of my once-faithful readers out there for my recent departure (sorry, Mom). This month has been bat-shit insane, and I'm even taking a chance right now of taking a few moments from my schedule to post. (Okay, not really, but this week should be the last of the crazy craziness.)

We're two months into the season, and it seems that none of my pitching squads are doing well. It's my biggest fantasy weakness, and I need to work on it. If anyone has any recommendations on books, resources, etc. on where I can learn about pitching, I'd appreciate it. Seriously - I suck. I focus too much on relievers, draft way too heavily on pitching sleepers, and end up with a 4.89 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP in all my leagues. It's my very own LIMA plan - draft pitchers with numbers like Jose Lima.

Anyway, I'm posting again. And if I get in a slump, just send off an e-mail to kick me in gear. Hell, send me a post, and I'll throw it up there. We haven't had a Spice Rack Submission yet this year.

Fantasy Baseball: Week 3 Head-to-Head Update

2006-04-28T16:42:00.000-04:00

Err... not so good.

League 1: 5-5 (18-12-0)
League 2: 5-5 (15-15-0)
League 3: 3-7 (12-16-2)
League 4: 4-6 (17-12-1)

League 3 took a very big hit, thanks in no small part to Lidge and Valverde getting crushed. However, I only won 2 hitting categories, and that's what I was counting on with this strategy. The other team did have an incredible week with Beckett, Schilling, and (most importantly) Ensberg (I can't imagine many H2H teams doing well against his 6 HRs this last week). I've never been happy with the makeup of this team, and it's apparent to me I need to make some changes.

League 4's offense fared just as well, only winning 1 category. The sad part is that I almost won Ks here against SPs Randy Johnson, Cain, Mussina, Westbrook and Lieber!

Anyway, sorry for the delay - finals are next week, and I'll finally be done on Tuesday. You can hope for more No Peppery goodness come Wednesday. Stay tuned, click that RSS feed to add me to your My Yahoo! page so you'll know the moment (and by "moment" I mean "roughly 18 hours later") I post something new.

An Off-Topic Observation

2006-04-28T16:22:00.000-04:00

Nothing says, "We should have gotten a dog" like having a cat on a leash.

While visiting the NoPepper extended family this week, my brother and his family and I strolled down by the neighborhood park for the little guys to run around for a while. My brother's dog was in tow, who is relatively well-behaved. However, something caught her eye - a cat halfway up a tree who looked to be desperately trying to scramble higher, knowing the dog would surely eat her. Something about this cat was different (all the rest was typical - paranoia, erratic behavior, etc.) - it had a leash on it. On the other end of the leash was a slightly embarrassed woman, trying to coax dear kitty down from its arborous hideaway.

Who the hell puts a leash on a cat? What does someone hope to accomplish by putting a cat on a leash? Maybe it's to show the rest of the world you recognize the fact that this creature is far inferior to its canine counterpart. Or the cat has done something horribly wrong, and you wish to punish it by displaying to the world that the cat is, in fact, not a dog.

I wish I had a camera at the time. Luckily, Google Images comes to the rescue. I'd post one, but frankly, there are too many to choose from. So in such event, I provide a valuable linky.

Fantasy Baseball: The Cincinnati Reds

2006-04-23T16:11:00.000-04:00

Currently, the Reds are 11-7, and about to go 12-7 with a big win over Milwaukee. Can this be right? No, it cannot. Look at this team - it has an extremely high-powered offense (aided by playing in the Great American Smallpark), and not a great pitching staff. In fact, this team has a very good chance of finishing at the top in Runs Scored, and at the very bottom in Runs Allowed. Currently, they've scored 110 runs (for 3rd in MLB), and allowed 114 (MLB worst).

Every position on this team is offering offensive numbers (though there really isn't a lot of balance at the moment.) The infield is power-potential galore: Dunn, Phillips (the kid has hit 5 HRs so far), Lopez, and Encarncion. The OF, even without Griffey, is solid: Kearns is driving the ball, and Freel is leading the league in SBs. That leaves the semi-platoon of Hatteburg, McCracken and Aurilia. There's no need for any of these guys to be on a fantasy team. Catcher is raising more questions than it should - Valentin could be hitting 20/.275 with regular time.

In other words, it may not be a bad idea to pick up E. Encarnicion and/or Austin Kearns, or trade for Adam Dunn or Freel. Oh (and while I shouldn't have to say this), stay away from their pitching.

Fantasy Baseball: Day-Early Derrek

2006-04-20T23:38:00.000-04:00

Not a good day for a lot of fantasy teams today. Derrek Lee will be out 8-10 weeks for high-fiving a baserunning Raphael Furcal waaaay too hard yesterday (and a day early, I might add), Ryan Madson gave up 9 ER in 1 inning of work (he's not widely owned, but was a sleeper for many in the Phillies rotation), Scott Kazmir left the game early due to "tightness" in the 6th inning, and Chris Shelton hasn't hit a home run in over 48 hours.

But I'd rather light a candle than curse your darkness. Here are today's highlights:

Michael Young is quietly doing what he does best - getting on-base and scoring runs.
Francisco Rodriquez pitched a 4 out save, quelling some of the rumors he might be hurt. (But folks, seriously try to get Shields on your roster to back him up. K-Rod's held off Dr. Andrews for much longer than he should have with that funky delivery.)
Brian Roberts is stealing bases like they're last year's HRs.
Jonny Gomes is all grows up. (2 dingers, for a season total of 7. The kid's good.) (Aside: Did Jhohhnhy Pherhalhta steal Jonny's "h"?)
Kaz Matsui hit an inside-the-park HR.

Ok, no one cares about that last one, nor should they.

Fantasy Baseball: Yahoo to the Rescue

2006-04-20T14:15:00.000-04:00

A big High Five goes out to Yahoo! for their quick response today. I'm in a winner's league where a poor loser decided he'd had enough of his poor performing team and dumped everyone onto the waiver wire. I think that's an extremely crappy move, and can really destroy a league. A few of us contacted the Yahoo! help desk, who quickly and swiftly restored the offending team's roster. We're not sure if that owner is locked out of roster moves/transactions, but initial guesses are that he is. Thanks, Yahoo.

NoPepperGames: Tomorrow (4/20/06) is National High Five Day!

2006-04-19T10:50:00.000-04:00

Keep it alive, folks.

Personally, I think National High Five Day is a fantastic idea. The thought of walking down the street and high-fiving a random stranger brings a tear to my eye. Just think of going to the ballgame, and the strangers you high-five there after a huge play/homerun/etc. It's a moment of shared exhilaration, of community. In the words of the founders:

"There is no reason why this should not happen with alarming frequency."

So tomorrow on April 20, think of your sense of community. Your sense of randomness. Your sense of passing on a tradition started within the game we love. That's right, the high five was reportedly started by one of our own, former LA Dodger and Oakland A's outfielder, Glenn Burke. Glenn may not have had the statistical legacy many would want to leave the game with, but his indelible mark of the high five will forever be a constant reminder.

Up high, Glenn. Up high.

NoPepperGames: A New Spice Rack Addition

2006-04-18T15:13:00.000-04:00

Greetings to The Sports Arena Forums, a new sports-related message board entering the internet ether. It looks like the operator has something for everyone, from baseball to football to basketball to hockey (what's that?) to college sports. I've included a link over on the side of NoPepperGames, which certainly has relagated TSA to internet stardom.

And while everyone moves their cursor to the right, give that "Vote For Me!" button a click (or twenty). Honk if you love Dynamo!

NoPepperGames: Not So Good to Be the King

2006-04-18T11:17:00.000-04:00

I overheard a disturbing little blurb on the radio today. "The Kansas City Royals lost their 8th consecutive game, taking them out of playoff contention." Yes, yes, the radio guy was having a bit of fun. They're not out of contention just yet - maybe next week. Other than the occassional owner having Burgos in their lineup, when was the last time someone had a Royal active on their roster? If yes, exactly how big is the AL-only league you're in?

Fantasy Baseball: Week 2 Head-to-Head Update

2006-04-17T18:27:00.000-04:00

I had a better record, but not as successful in my opinion - but on track. I don't like those ties.

Team 1: 8-2 (13-7 overall)
Team 2: 3-7 (10-10)
Team 3: 5-3-2 (9-9-2)
Team 4: 6-3-1 (13-6-1)

Team 2 was pummelled by Jeter and Damon, as well as a strong presence from Tad Iguchi - a very interesting approach that I considered. Runs, AVG and SBs are a very legitimate way to go here. I had wanted to do the same for Team 4 when I drafted, but things didn't work out that way (instead, I have the strongest offense of the 4 on that squad). But if you were to put together Crawford, Rollins and some high R/AVG guys, you could lock up the offense. It'd be interesting to see how consistent a team like that is week-to-week. But, all things considered, Team 2 was held down by slumpers - Manny, Beltre, Bonds, and Matsui were all underperformers.

NoPepperGames: Jackie Robinson Day

2006-04-15T22:24:00.000-04:00

59 years ago today Jackie Robinson turned the game we love more accurately into the American Pastime.

Words much more eloquent than mine have been said, in greater quantity, by people more qualified to do so and in a more meaningful fashion. Major League Baseball has now been celebrating Jackie Robinson Day for several years now (possibly one of the only things Selig has done correctly), and it's an excellent time for all of us to take a look and see what Jackie did for us, the game, and the country.

I direct you to the following sources on the topic:

ESPN.com Recognizes Jackie Robinson Day 2006
Cooperstown's Bio on Jackie Robinson
I Was Right On Time, by Buck O'Neil
The Jackie Robinson Foundation

Fantasy Baseball: Break It Down Now!

2006-04-12T16:39:00.000-04:00

I managed to push all of my active rosters onto an Excel file to play with what I managed to get myself into this season. The results are, I have a feeling, interesting only to myself. But since you're reading, clearly you've become infatuated with my day-to-day.

The Top Ten (teams owned in paren. - 17 total)
Willingham (10)
Hermida (9)
Tracy (8)
Weeks (8)
D. Cabrera (7)
Blanton (6)
Delmon Young (6)
Granderson (6)
M. Cabrera (6)
Valverde (6)

Clearly I think way too highly of Delmon's chances of being promoted. Three of those are in either keeper leagues or REALLY deep leagues, so that's my excuse there. D. Cabrera and Granderson were taken near the end of nearly every draft, unless I took them off the FA pool.

By Position
C: Willingham (10)
1B: Helton (5)
2B: Weeks (8)
3B: Tracy (8)
SS: Barmes/Crosby (tie @ 5)
OF: Hermida (9)
OF: Delmon (6)
OF: Granderson (6)
UT: Shelton (4)

SP: Blanton (6)
SP: Kazmir (3)
RP: Valverde (6)
RP: Gonzalez (5)
P: Haren (3)
P: Turnbow (4)
P: Ray (4)

What does this say? Absolutely nothing. Okay, it may say that I didn't overvalue players too badly by overreaching for Derrek Jeter in the first couple rounds like Yankee fans are wont to do. I did have a few favorite go-tos, but they were taken at value in the mid- to late-rounds. Picks like Weeks, Crosby and Tracy were routinely met with "Crap!" or "Dammit, NoPepper!" during drafts, so I'll take it on the word of complete strangers in an online applet that I done good.

One Hit Wonders
C: Martinez
1B: Pujols
2B: Utley
3B: Wright
SS: Young
OF: Guerrero
OF: A. Jones
OF: Ichiro
UT: Tejada

Wow, this means even less. The only thing this alerts me to is the fact that three of those players are all on one team (Utley, Vlad and M. Young - all keepers). I love those players! I wish I had more of them on other teams. Damn.

For those in multiple leagues, anybody you've found yourself drafting fairly regularly?

Fantasy Baseball: Pitcher Rankings Article at Rotochamps.com

2006-04-11T11:12:00.000-04:00

I'm a semi-regular over at Rotochamps.com, and wanted to point everyone over to take a gander at a pitchers ranking article that I think is extremely well done. Quite a few surprises, but everyone of them accompanied by a justification and explanation.

The article is here.

Fantasy Baseball: Week 1 Head-To-Head Update

2006-04-10T19:52:00.000-04:00

I can't promise I'll remember to do this every week, but then again, I can't remember to bathe myself every week either. Baby steps. Of the five teams I have in H2H leagues, 4 of them were in action last week (one was delayed on account of Rotowire.com sucking complete ass as a fantasy platform).

Team 1: 5-5-0
Team 2: 7-3-0
Team 3: 4-6-0
Team 4: 7-3-0

All in all, a good show. That 4-6 was a disappointment, but my closers just didn't perform. I don't expect that to continue from the likes of Lidge, Street, Valverde, Ray, Gordon and Worrell. That team was also waiting for Tracy to gain 3B status, and now Zimmerman will be confined to bench work. The 5-5 tie was a surprise, as I went into the final day up 7-3. But one Reitsma rocking later, and a flurry of RBIs from the opposition, and I was in a 4-6 hole. If my opponent had sat Izzy last night, he'd have taken me - and he should have, if he'd been active. There were a handful of teams I saw that went 9-0-1 or 8-2, all of which would have been beaten by my team. Them's the breaks, boys.

Fantasy Baseball 101: 5x5? 6x6? Someone please pass me the Clue-by-4

2006-04-07T18:02:00.000-04:00

I've noticed that I get quite a few hits from folks who are Googling for "6x6 categories" or somesuch. While I do quietly point and laugh, I realize I was in the same boat just a few years ago. For those very new to fantasy baseball (or who feel they've mastered the simple complexity of the 5x5 format and want to know more), I offer the following short introduction to what the friggin' deal is.

First off, 99.9% of what I write about here has to do with the Rotiserrie format of fantasy baseball. I do not condone playing Head-to-Head (which many fantasy football converts want to initially play because they're familiar with it - to this I say, you'll not like it, and you'll hate baseball the rest of your life. If that happens, then what? Do you want to be miserable for 4 months until football starts back up? No, no you don't. So just take my word on it.). H2H is broken, it's horrible, it's a mess. To give the football folks an analogy, how would you respond to a format of fantasy football where you could consistently win without drafting (or even playing) running backs? Yup, that's the case here. (If you want a rundown on Rotiserrie (or "Roto"), check out the Wiki article.)

5x5 Format
Okay, let's get to it. Basic Roto ball revolves around 10 categories - 5 for hitters, 5 for pitchers. They are:

Runs
Homeruns
Runs Batted In (RBIs)
Stolen Bases
Batting Average

Wins
Saves
Strikeouts
Earned Run Average
WHIP (Walks + Hits)/Innings Pitched

This is standard, but it is not set in stone. You may find a league where they've decided that the RBI is overrated, and replace it with something (say, On Base Percentage). That's fine - but don't just refer to it as "a 5x5 league" - it's "a 5x5 league with OBP instead of RBIs" so people know what the hell you're talking about. Personally, I like to replace Batting Average with On Base Percentage - it takes walks into account, which is just as good as a hit, right? Slugging not so much, as it then double counts HRs, and still doesn't count walks.

6x6 Format
There is no standard 6x6 format. Roto ball is 5x5, with maybe a little gravy on top. Some people like beef gravy, some chicken gravy. Some strange people in the south like "cream gravy" - that's why they lost the war. But I digress...

It depends on the league to determine what extra categories they want to add. There is only one firm rule you should abide by - if you add a hitting category, you should add a pitching category. Balance it out a little bit. To go a bit further, some want to insist that you should keep the same "type" of stat as your added category. If you're adding On Base Percentage to hitting, add another percentage or ratio to pitching, like K/9 or K/BB. I don't think you have to - look at the original 5x5 format, pitching has 2 ratios while hitting only has 1.

These are a few categories that I favor:

Hitting:
On Base Percentage
Strikeouts (a negative counting stat)
Slugging (but only paired with OBP instead of AVG)
Doubles (maybe)

Pitching:
K/9
K/BB
Batting Average Against (unfortunately, Yahoo does not have this as a category)
Holds
Losses

Again, 6x6 is your creation. Just don't try to throw something in there for the hell of it - think about what you're doing before you do it. You may think, "gosh, Complete Games and Shutouts are perfect reflections of a dominant pitcher!" and forget that it's not. At all. They're perfect indications of (a) a rubber arm, (b) that Dusty Baker is your manager, (c) you're pretty darn good, (d) you're pretty darn lucky, or (e) the opposing team sucks complete ass. Usually, it's (e), with a fair bit of (b) thrown in there.

Confidential to Dusty in Chicago: You suck.

Fantasy Baseball: Gagne's Hurt, Go Pick Up... Oh, Why Do I Even Bother?

2006-04-06T22:52:00.000-04:00

So it was announced this evening that Eric Gagne is going under the knife soon to remove a nerve. The Dodgers knew there was some risk here, which is why they signed Danys Baez in the off-season. Baez is good - he got 41 saves with the D-Rays last year, with a very good ERA (his WHIP could use some work - but he did pitch in the AL East).

I then immediately scoured my ridiculous amount of leagues I'm in. Here are the results:

4 Head-To-Head leagues: Baez is taken
AL-only: not an issue
1 Franchise: Baez is taken (Holds)
2 Yahoo Winners leagues: Baez is taken (1 to back up Gagne)
Baseball Prospectus/ESPN league: Baez is taken
5 Yahoo public leagues: Baez is taken
3 serious leagues (money and friends' leagues): Baez is taken (2 to back up Gagne, 1 in a league with Holds)

What?!? Okay, he's good - and Gagne wasn't 100% over the spring. But there have been several closer changes already, and the type of owners that stockpile potential closers would have moved Baez for Rodney, Worrell or maybe even Papelbon (go and get him, by the way - even if he doesn't close (which he will by committee, if not outright by the ASB) he'll be Linebrink/Duscherer solid). And we're talking SEVENTEEN leagues here! These people have even less of a life than I do! (Okay, that may be an exaggeration.)

Fantasy Baseball: The Circle of Trust Expands

2006-04-06T22:44:00.000-04:00

It appears my readership has doubled overnight - welcome, Brian! He runs a Cards fan blog over at Obsessions of a Cardinal Fan, so once you've diligently clicked on all of my Google ads, go click on his. (I wish that sounded dirtier than that - but I'm tired.) I haven't fully explored it yet, but I imagine he suffers from the horrible dilemma of rooting for a team that's actually good. "Boy, Pujols sure is good. But you know what? So's Rolen. And Edmonds. And Yadier is pretty good behind the plate. Izzy's been awefully consistent." "No, you're wrong - Pujols is REALLY good. And he's like 14 years old, so he's going to be REALLY good for about 80 more years." How much fun is that, huh? I have to sit here and wait for Billy Butler and Alex Gordon to arrive. And that's most likely a load of crap, considering how much hype Teahen received before last season. Harrumph. Harrumph, I say.

Fantasy Baseball: Week One Thoughts

2006-04-06T13:52:00.000-04:00

I'd like to say I've been inundated with requests for new postings now that the season has begun. Not so much.

But there are all sorts of "first week of the season" posts at various sites. And they all say basically the same thing:

Stop panicking.
No, don't drop Barry Zito (or Andy Pettitte, or John Lackey, or [insert SP who was rocked this week]).
No, don't drop Prince Fielder (though be wary).
Yes, you should pick up Josh Willingham (oddly, I said that last month - see, I know what I'm doing here, Mom).

So seriously, stop panicking. Stop screwing around with your roster and making poor choices. You drafted that team, now stick with them. Pick up any newly-assigned closers while dropping the guys you labelled as expendible at the end of the draft (that 5th or 5th OF, that 3rd 1B, that 7th SP - you know who I'm talking about). DON'T drop what you think is an underperformer based on 3 games. If you're worried about someone, check their splits from last year - maybe they are a slow starter and you weren't aware of that when you drafted. In that case, try to trade them, or just be careful where you start them. But don't drop 'em - you drafted them for a reason.

Fantasy Baseball: Reader Mailbag - Clint Barmes

2006-03-30T00:07:00.000-05:00

It's that time of year again, when I get one piece of e-mail. I actually had it scheduled for sometime in June, so this really caught me by surprise. Loyal reader Joshua writes:

If you read Baseball Prospectus, how can you possibly be excited about Clint "Can't Hit The Side Of A" Barmes?

Well Joshua, that's a good question. But I'm afraid I'm not quite sure what you're referring to - I don't believe I've expressed any excitement towards our favorite carcass carrier (other than the opportunity to write "carcass carrier"). If I were forced to get excited about Clint, I'd be excited about his potential draft value.

And other than coming straight back from an injury (when few players ever play immediately back at their previous level), when has Barmes not hit well? And by "well", I mean .275+ AVG with decent pop. He's not Young, he's not Jeter - he's certainly no Tejada. He's not even Peralta or Lopez. But he is just a notch below the latter, and you can have him for much much cheaper while you focus on other positions. He's being drafted after fantasy-lightweights Carlos Guillen and Aaron Harang - number 185 on my dandy Yahoo average draft position rankings posted a few weeks ago.

I will happily take Miquel Cabrera or Jason Bay at the end of round 1 when people are taking Michael Young and Miquel Tejada, knowing that no one has been touching Barmes until after Round 15. (I will note, however, that Barmes was taken a bit earlier in one of my more recent drafts, semi-sponsored by - wait for it... - Baseball Prospectus). (Of course, this is the same league I drafted Teixeira at #7, and got Ortiz back on the turn at #14.)

Addendum: Okay, it would seem that I did say "both [Barmes and Crosby] could produce very very good numbers." I will admit that I was a bit liberal with the "very"s there. However, the potential is still there for Barmes to produce a .300+ AVG and 15 HRs. Too bad he plays in such a horrid pitchers park, otherwise he'd have that going for him... Wait a second, he plays in Coors!

Thanks for writing in, Joshua - I will try to be a bit more careful with my incredibly unnecessary superfluous extra adjectives in the future.

Fantasy Baseball: How Long Can I Wait For a... Firstbaseman?

2006-03-17T14:15:00.000-05:00

How long can you wait? Soooooo long! There is just so much talent here, it's quite ridiculous. There are 4 1Bs in the first round: Pujols, Teixeira, Ortiz (eligible in most leagues) and Derrek Lee. Then there's a few rounds where they're non-existant (not counting 1B-elible Chase Utley, as his value is as a 2B), then it pours on again. Delgado and Helton are solid 3rd round guys, and Sexson, Howard, and Konerko are all great 4th rounders.

Lance Berkman is 1B-eligible, but I'd grab him for an OF - same goes for Adam Dunn.

But at the end of the draft, you still see big contributors left (and by "end", I literally mean the very last round). Guys like Mike Sweeney, Dan Johnson (who I like a whole lot more than his NL-counterpart Nick), Chris Shelton (who should NOT be slidding down that far - a smart owner took him very early in the 11th round last week, and I cannot argue with that), Jay Gibbons and Brad Wilkerson.

Part of me wants to counsel you to really wait until the last minute for a 1B - but then you can't discount the massive numbers the top guys are cranking out. Sexson has near-Ortiz numbers (except for AVG). Take a look at his Runs and RBIs - they're unexpectedly enormous. Give him another year in the AL, and they could possibly increase.

Fantasy Baseball: How Long Can I Wait For a... Catcher?

2006-03-16T10:02:00.000-05:00

New feature, folks! A good portion of drafts are done, but there's still a lot of folks who haven't yet. Personally, I advocate waiting as long as possible to draft, so you can see players emerge from Spring Training (and this year, the WBC). Plus, ST injuries can kill a squad.

Catchers are a mess once again this year. The top ones are going way too early, and people keep drafting Jason Kendall for some reason.

Victor Martinez is being drafted, on average, at #35 - mid 3rd round. That is simply WAY too early. Take Beltran. Take Berkman. PLEASE! Let's look at the numbers from last year and a projection for this year (projections from Rotochamps.com):

Martinez: 73/20/80/0/.305 - 81/23/89/0/.304
Beltran: 83/16/78/17/.266 - 106/30/93/30/.269
Berkman: 76/24/82/4/.293 - 96/30/97/5/.301

You can argue those projections for Beltran are high - but I see a definite improvement upon last year. They're still heads and shoulders above Martinez's numbers.

"But the difference between Martinez and the rest of the catchers makes up for that!" you say. I say you're wrong. Let's now focus our attention to the bottom of the draft, where you're taking your 3rd OF (unless you're smart and shored up all 3 OFers early, like I told you to a month ago), let's say around pick #150, and compare newcomer Kenji Johjima (149) with OFers Aaron Rowand (153) and Kevin Mench (157):

(Note: Johjima's Japanese numbers are unavailable to me at the moment, so we'll go with his Rotochamps.com projections):

Johjima: -/-/-/-/- - 82/21/69/3/.287
Rowand: 77/13/69/16/.270 - 88/16/76/18/.267
Mench: 71/16/78/4/.264 - 70/26/68/3/.276

And to throw out another C I've been heavily targeting the last month, Josh Willingham (also has numbers that are inconsequential from last year):

Willingham: -/-/-/-/- - 65/26/67/7/.259

So take a Catcher from Pool A and an OF from Pool B, or an OF from Pool A and a Catcher from Pool B, and see what the difference is. You're a smart kid, you can do the math.

Final Advice: Varitek isn't being drafted at value. He's usually being picked when I'm strapped for an RP, so I don't get him - but if he's available in Rd. 10, nab him. If Johjima last until Rd. 14, take him. And if you want to look like the smartest owner, wait until the final 3 rounds to take Willingham. He'll be playing 1B or the OF, but has C eligibility.

Democracy in Action

2006-03-14T15:52:00.000-05:00

Attention all freedom-loving blog readers! I've just discovered a blog-rating website, which I've signed No Pepper Games up for. Knowing that my extensive readership (and by "extensive" I of course mean "all three of you" - thanks, Mom!) is dying to express their commitment by pushing a button, I've included a link. It's over there on the right - where it says "Don't Forget to Vote!"

Fantasy Baseball: The Great Experiment

2006-03-14T13:43:00.000-05:00

The Head-to-Head (H2H) format for fantasy baseball is an abomination. It's popularity is due most likely to the influx of fantasy football players who are scared of change, and refuse to try something different (much like my 3 year old nephew). Rotisserie is not broccoli, people! Try it, you WILL like it.

Here's the problem with H2H. It doesn't reflect actual baseball at all. People stream pitchers, ignore entire categories, don't draft ANY pitchers, etc. Sure, sure, Roto is no different in the "not like real baseball at all", but this is different. In Roto, you're forced to focus on all aspects of the game at hand - every category counts. But in H2H, you just need to cover more categories than the other guy.

So what is a winning strategy? In my opinion, you can completely discount starting pitchers. Completely. To prove this, I am undertaking the Great Experiment: I'm taking part in 4 Yahoo Public H2H leagues (competetive). In the draft, I will not draft a single starting pitcher. The only exception is for pitchers that are SP-eligible, but are actually middle relievers or closers.

How do I expect to win without any SPs? I can do this two ways: I can either stream pitchers (which is to shuffle in every starting pitcher from the free agent pool that I can, and win Wins, Strikeouts and Saves (from the many relievers I'll draft), and possibly compete in ERA/WHIP), or just ignore Wins and Ks, and take Saves, ERA and WHIP by just having dominant closers.

What will this accomplish? Hopefully, it will shed some light on the complete worthlessness of the H2H format. It works in football - but not in baseball.

Fantasy Baseball: Yahoo ADP: 151-200

2006-03-13T13:27:00.000-05:00

Without further ado, here are the final 50 ranked players in the top 200 of Yahoo roto drafts:

151. B. Wickman 148.9
152. R. Freel 151.3
153. A. Rowand 152.5
154. J. Bonderman 153.4
155. R. Dempster 154.4
156. J. Vázquez 155.9
157. J. Valverde 156.2
158. K. Mench 157.2
159. J. Gomes 157.8
160. P. Fielder 160.1
161. J. Lane 160.1
162. C. Ray 162.1
163. B. Crosby 164.0
164. R. Hernández 164.1
165. C. Capuano 165.0
166. S. Kazmir 166.3
167. M. Mussina 167.0
168. M. González 168.7
169. M. Loretta 168.7
170. G. Jenkins 169.2
171. J. Morneau 171.6
172. J. Borowski 173.2
173. J. Blanton 174.9
174. P. Polanco 176.5
175. M. Clement 177.2
176. J. Westbrook 178.2
177. G. Atkins 178.9
178. L. Overbay 180.4
179. B. Molina 183.0
180. M. MacDougal 183.1
181. A. Harang 183.9
182. S. Hillenbrand 185.5
183. S. Green 187.9
184. C. Guillén 190.0
185. C. Barmes 182.7
186. M. Ellis 192.0
187. J. Weaver 194.8
188. J. Drew 195.9
189. C. Orvella 197.6
190. M. Morris 199.5
191. B. Clark 199.6
192. F. Liriano 200.8
193. E. Santana 201.8
194. C. Young 202.3
195. J. Dye 203.1
196. N. Swisher 203.5
197. M. Barrett 200.6
198. S. Casey 204.1
199. R. Belliard 206.5
200. A. Pierzynski 202.0

Quite a few surprises in there. I don't see Mench producing at that high of a level, nor Prince Fielder. There are a lot of solid middle infield guys going around in here - do not over-value the top ranked players at 2B and SS, since there is a lot of quality later in the draft. Barmes consistently goes late, but Crosby is being grabbed earlier by quite a few owners. Both could produce very very good numbers.

Fantasy Baseball: Yahoo ADP: 101-150

2006-03-10T10:34:00.000-05:00

In my promise to bring everyone up to speed on the Top 200 by today, I have to crank these out in 50 player increments. I want to again point out that the second number is the player's average draft position. You can see in this bunch that there is a lot of grouping, and very little differentiation between several players.

101. F. Cordero 101.6
102. J. López 104.6
103. F. García 105.7
104. C. Tracy 106.8
105. É. Rentería 108.6
106. J. Thome 110.2
107. N. Lowry 111.4
108. R. Weeks 112.7
109. C. Crisp 112.9
110. C. Sabathia 113.2
111. A. Huff 114.1
112. T. Hudson 114.3
113. M. Mulder 115.6
114. M. Holliday 116.9
115. J. Garland 118.5
116. D. Turnbow 119.1
117. M. Mora 120.9
118. J. Lackey 121.9
119. D. Davis 123.6
120. J. Lugo 123.8
121. I. Rodríguez 124.1
122. B. Giles 124.5
123. J. Posada 124.5
124. D. Haren 124.9
125. J. Giambi 125.8
126. J. Contreras 126.1
127. B. Jenks 127.9
128. N. Garciaparra 130.1
129. Z. Duke 130.8
130. R. Winn 132.5
131. K. Wood 133.1
132. K. Foulke 137.6
133. T. Iguchi 138.0
134. W. Taveras 138.1
135. L. Hernández 138.6
136. B. Fuentes 139.0
137. T. Hunter 140.5
138. A. Benítez 141.2
139. M. Ordóñez 141.3
140. T. Jones 142.1
141. K. Millwood 142.2
142. T. Gordon 142.4
143. M. Bradley 144.7
144. J. Francoeur 145.4
145. R. Canó 147.1
146. G. Anderson 147.4
147. M. Cain 147.4
148. J. Lieber 147.6
149. K. Johjima 147.8
150. A. Béltre 148.1

My personal favorite picks out of this group are Tracy, Weeks, Huff, Holliday, Haren, Duke and Francouer. All of them have very big potential to contribute much larger numbers to their teams then where they're being drafted.

Fantasy Baseball: Yahoo ADP: 73-100

2006-03-09T16:58:00.000-05:00

The last of the truly reliable closers (and some not-so reliable) are now off the board, and people start taking chances on a mess of injury-prone players. I actually listed a bunch of the injury-prone in an earlier draft, but decided it'd be easier to list the healthy (Myers, Cordero, Blalock, F. Lopez, Varitek, and Cl. Lee). I really don't know what to make of this list - other than tread with caution. Go for upside, avoid injuries (the absolute bane of any fantasy team), and search for a slider. Likely, someone from the previous list may have slid down, or you may see someone in the 100-125 list that you want to reach for. I say go for it.

73. V. Wells 75.1
74. B. Myers 77.9
75. E. Gagne 77.9
76. C. Cordero 78.7
77. J. Smoltz 79.6
78. B. Bonds 79.8
79. H. Blalock 80.5
80. J. Schmidt 82.2
81. B. Zito 82.8
82. P. Burrell 84.8
83. S. Rolen 87.3
84. J. Beckett 87.6
85. B. Webb 88.8
86. T. Glaus 89.1
87. A. Burnett 91.7
88. J. Patterson 92.2
89. F. López 92.8
90. C. Schilling 93.8
91. J. Varitek 95.2
92. J. Isringhausen 95.6
93. T. Hoffman 95.6
94. Cl. Lee 95.8
95. C. Floyd 95.8
96. B. Roberts 96.0
97. K. GriffeyJr 96.5
98. J. Edmonds 97.9
99. E. Guardado 99.6
100. R. Clemens 101.0

Fantasy Baseball: Feeling Like Sheet(s)

2006-03-09T16:41:00.000-05:00

Just a quick notice that Ben Sheets left his Spring Training game in the first inning today, feeling pain in the same area he lost playing time to last year. If you're deciding between him and someone like Zambrano, go with the Cub. Or if Sheets is offered in a trade, downgrade him accordingly.

Fantasy Baseball: Yahoo ADP: 49-72

2006-03-09T11:56:00.000-05:00

We're getting into the meat of the draft here, so pay attention. It's hard to screw up Rounds 1-4, but it is the next 5 rounds that can really make or break your entire season. There's a lot of variation, and those poor saps who reach for their favorite average player (moron who took Uribe in Rd. 6, I'm looking at you), need a solid performance playing the free agent market to make up for it.

49. J. Pierre 50.8
50. R. Howard 51.5
51. A. Dunn 52.1
52. B. Lidge 53.6
53. G. Sizemore 53.7
54. M. Ensberg 55.6
55. M. Giles 56.9
56. J. Damon 57.9
57. J. Cantú 58.2
58. F. Hernández 58.6
59. Fr. Rodríguez 59.9
60. H. Matsui 60.6
61. S. Podsednik 61.1
62. J. Mauer 62.5
63. B. Wagner 63.1
64. A. Pettitte 64.5
65. C. Jones 67.0
66. B. Colón 67.1
67. J. Nathan 67.3
68. E. Chávez 69.6
69. M. Buehrle 70.9
70. H. Street 71.6
71. J. Peralta 72.8
72. B. Ryan 73.3

Did someone say "closer run"? 6 closers in 24 picks. (That's 25% for the math-impaired and Uribe-picking mouthbreathers out there). All of these pitchers are very good, but Ryan is certainly a step down from everyone else taken. It would seem that Rd. 5 and 6 is "Get a bat, get an arm".

Matsui really surprises me. There couldn't be a more consistent player, and he's good for 30/100/.290 every single year. Mauer is being taken here, which isn't horrible value, but it's still early for a catcher. The guys available in the final two rounds aren't going to kill your team, and wouldn't you rather have Pettitte, Wagner, Street or Ryan on your team? And whoever these people are who are taking Podsednik here are killing themselves. The Almight Stolen Base isn't worth the hit to every single other category with this guy. Let someone else cripple their team with him, and fill an empty 3B slot or take a top pitcher.

Fantasy Baseball: Yahoo ADP: 25-48

2006-03-08T16:47:00.000-05:00

Sorry for the delay. I'm going to try to get the top 200 out by Friday. (For those looking for an easy way out, Yahoo has posted their top 100 ADPs, but be careful - that includes results from the idiots and filthy masses of the uninformed). This should be much more informative and useful info for everyone.

25. C. Utley 24.8
26. J. Reyes 25.6
27. R. Halladay 26.0
28. J. Kent 32.4
29. A. Ramírez 33.5
30. D. Jeter 33.8
31. C. Delgado 34.2
32. V. Martínez 35.0
33. C. Beltrán 35.4
34. M. Prior 36.1
35. R. Johnson 36.4
36. M. Rivera 38.6
37. T. Helton 38.7
38. J. Rollins 39.6
39. L. Berkman 39.7
40. D. Willis 39.9
41. T. Hafner 40.8
42. C. Lee 42.0
43. R. Furcal 42.6
44. C. Zambrano 44.1
45. R. Harden 47.2
46. R. Sexson 48.5
47. P. Konerko 50.1
48. B. Sheets 50.5

Personal thoughts: Simply put, that's a fantastic place for Utley. If you grab him between 20-25, you're well on your way to doing well (though I do advocate waiting for a 2B sleeper, which will be previewed next week - there is a lot of talent sliding at this position this year). Note also Kent being drafted soon after - people panic with 2B at the top, but you'll see some neglection later in the listings.

Beltran at 35.4 is a mirage. He's been creeping up more and more, to the point where I may need to make a correction of some sort. But not wanting to fiddle with the actual data, that's where he's at. Don't let him get away - he will NOT be seeing the end of Round 3 for the rest of the draft season. I could make a very strong case for taking him as early as mid-2nd round. Do not discount how much pressure the presence of David Wright will alleviate on Beltran.

I wouldn't take Prior or Johnson in those slots. Do I think Randy's done? Absolutely not. In fact, he'll put up solid numbers for 3rd/4th round. But I'd simply rather have Helton or Berkman or Hafner than either of those pitchers (especially Prior).

A lot of people jumping on Harden early. In a keeper, yes. But with his injury concerns, I'd rather go with Sheets, who's right below him.

Finally, there's power coming off the boards here. Howard and Dunn are just off the end of this list at 50 and 51, which you'll see tomorrow. And until then...

Fantasy Baseball: Yahoo ADP: 13-24

2006-03-03T14:05:00.000-05:00

Nothing too surprising here:

13. B. Abreu 13.5
14. P. Martínez 14.8
15. M. Tejada 15.4
16. J. Bay 15.9
17. C. Carpenter 18.1
18. I. Suzuki 18.6
19. A. Soriano 19.4
20. G. Sheffield 21.4
21. J. Peavy 21.8
22. R. Oswalt 22.1
23. A. Jones 22.6
24. C. Figgins 24.0

I'm a fan of taking OF early, but that's too early for Jones. I'd also wait on Carpenter. He'll have a great season, but let someone else take him early 2nd round. Ichiro is surprising, but entirely justified there, as are Peavy and Oswalt.

Fantasy Baseball: Yahoo Average Draft Positions 1-12

2006-03-02T15:45:00.000-05:00

And as promised, I present the first part of my findings of average draft positions on Yahoo (all leagues are 12 team, 5x5 Roto). I specifically excluded any drafts where there was an obvious homer, or someone who just plain didn't know what they were doing.

The number after the player's name is their average draft position.

1. Á. Rodríguez 1.1
2. A. Pujols 2.1
3. V. Guerrero 3.5
4. M. Teixeira 4.6
5. M. Ramírez 5.6
6. Jo. Santana 6.5
7. D. Ortiz 7.5
8. D. Lee 7.7
9. M. Young 11.5
10. C. Crawford 12.2
11. Mi. Cabrera 12.6
12. D. Wright 12.9

People seem to be very big fans of Michael Young. I am, but I don't think I could draft him in the first round - there is just too much SS talent out there (I've been getting Crosby and Barmes very late in drafts, and haven't looked back).

And I haven't received a single link yet to acquire more data. The only thing holding these charts down is the fact that they account fairly strongly for drafts that I have drafted in - so there is a strong No Pepper Games bias. The more outside data I get, the better the numbers. So feel free to post those public league links (c'mon, they're public - I'm not out phishing for e-mail addresses).

Fantasy Baseball: Christmas in May (WBC, BP)

2006-03-02T15:42:00.000-05:00

I can barely contain myself at work today. We have the World Baseball Classic beginning this evening (God I wish I had TIVO in order to tape these incredibly late broadcasts), Baseball Tonight after midnight, and my Baseball Prospectus just arrived in the mail!

I think I may be leaving work early so I can nerd it up.

Fantasy Baseball: Average Draft Position for Yahoo

2006-02-28T14:41:00.000-05:00

Sorry for the recent delay in posts, everyone. I've been busy drafting teams on Yahoo public leagues. Here's a free bit of advice: Don't draft your winner's league until you've done a few regular competitive leagues. The draft was EXTREMELY competitive, and I'm impressed with far too many other teams, rather than my own.

Additionally, I've undertaken the task of compiling data from as many good Yahoo drafts as I can, and coming up with some decent ADPs for this year. So I'm sending out a request - I need data. You can either post a link to your public Yahoo 5x5 Roto league or e-mail it to me, and I'll plug in the data. The more leagues I sample from, the better the overall data. Not too many surprises are coming out so far, but it's still good info nonentheless.

Also, I wanted to report that I seem to have won 2 tickets to a MLB game this year via a pack of Topps baseball cards. All games are in August, and can be redeemed for any home park in MLB (except for those crazy Canucks in Toronto who aren't participating). I've put it up on eBay here.

Fantasy Baseball: The First Round

2006-01-14T15:55:00.001-05:00

With publications, mock drafts and other lists being assembled this month, I thought I would (a) release my projected first round and (b) analyze the other lists first rounds.

No Pepper Games' First Round Projections:

1. Alex Rodriquez - I'm not a fan, but Pujol's AVG doesn't make up for A-Rod's SBs and RBIs.
2. Albert Pujols - Absolutely solid player. If Rolen plays all season, he'll be even better.
3. Valdimir Guerrero - Still solidly in the Top Three this year. The Angels have lost some tools, but Vlad will still produce.
4. Johan Santana - I strongly suggest building solid pitching in standard Roto leagues - this is where that list begins.
5. Mark Teixeira - Is going to be a monster for years to come.
6. Miguel Tejada - SS isn't all that deep this year, and there are no questions surrounding Tejada.
7. Manny Ramirez - Are there better numbers out there? Yup. But few of them are as consistent as Manny. Plus, the other better numbers are from firstbasemen, where there is depth-galore.
8. Derrek Lee - An admitted stretch here. But with the Cubs' offseason acquisitions, Lee is poised for another huge year.
9. David Ortiz - Absolutely sick numbers. The only thing that hurts him is his DH/Util position.
10. David Wright - 3B is another shallow position, and Wright is second only to A-Rod.
11. Bobby Abreu - His 2nd half last year worries me, but only because it makes me think of the weeping opposing teams would have been doing if he had duplicated his 1st half performance. There was a power dropoff, but his numbers were still top notch.
12. Pedro Martinez - Again, I stress the importance of consistently solid SPs in Roto. You'll see contrary advice elsewhere, but it's a proven commodity for me.

Brandon Funston's Yahoo! Sports Big Board

1. Alex Rodriquez - no difference
2. Albert Pujols - no difference
3. Vladimir Guerrero - no difference
4. Mark Teixeira - I can't argue with this, Teixeira is dominant.
5. Manny Ramirez - I mentioned this week that OF is an actually shallow position. Manny's a great pick.
6. Johan Santana - no argument
7. Derrek Lee - At least I'm not reaching as far as Brandon!
8. David Ortiz - We seem to be in general agreement.
9. Michael Young - Wha...?!? Young is a fantastic SS - but better than Tejada?! Sorry, I just don't see it.
10. Carl Crawford - And yet Juan Pierre is completely off his board. Crawford's 12-15 HRs just don't merit that gap.
11. David Wright - After Aramis Ramirez, there are just a lot of questions at 3B, Wright's in for a big year.
12. Miquel Cabrera - I don't have Cabrera much further down, but to put him this high risks having owners take him even earlier. The turmoil in Florida is going to hurt his production this year, so buyer beware.

The Sporting News Top 300

1. Alex Rodriguez
2. Albert Pujols
3. Vlad Guerrero
4. Mark Teixiera
5. Derrek Lee - Wow. Just...wow.
6. Miguel Cabrera - If this was put together before the firesale, I'd forgive it. But it wasn't.
7. Carl Crawford - Chicks dig the long ball. But his 15 long balls aren't this exciting.
8. Jason Bay - This kid is incredible, but not this high.
9. Manny Ramirez
10. Johan Santana - whoever gets Santana at #10 is getting an absolute steal.
11. Michael Young
12. Miquel Tejada - another list with Tejada behind Young. I don't get it.

Fantasy Baseball: Sporting News analysis - Keeper Leagues

2006-01-12T16:21:00.000-05:00

This is maybe the best example I can give of how this magazine is terribly edited. Kevin Wheeler gives an admittedly great description and promotion of keeper leagues. I couldn't agree more with his pros and cons. Keeper leagues promote league longevity, giving the bottom-dwellers something to keep playing for, and a higher sense of team ownership.

But then it all goes downhill when he provides a list of "Top 50 keepers for 2006." This is possibly the worst list I've ever seen. Consider the following - he first states:

In choosing your keeper players, the single most important factor you should consider is consistency. It is too risky to try picking keepers you think are about to have career years.

Then he goes on and ranks Todd Helton (#12) above Mark Teixeira (#16). Apparently, no one told Mr. Wheeler that the magazine was going to rank Teixeira as the #2 firstbaseman (at $37) in the league (behind Albert Pujols), or that Todd Helton was going to be ranked #4 ($28). And please, don't consider the fact that Teixeira is 25 years old and easily a few years away from hitting his prime, where Mr. Helton is 32 and in a decline. And to completely top it all off, they have Mark Teixeira as the Number Four fantasy player, OVERALL. (Helton is at #18).

Now, don't get me wrong - I love Todd Helton. He's been a steady go-to for me for several years now. In fact, he's been an anchor on my keeper team for several years. But this is the year that he gets released back into the wild - with the hopes that I can draft him in Round 2 or 3. But Mark Teixeira is simply fantasy elite now - a top 5 pick for many years to come. There is absolutely no reason to have him at #16 on any list.

And where does he put other young studs like Miguel Cabrera, Carl Crawford, David Wright and Jason Bay? I'm glad you asked. They are ranked 8, 45, 29, 43, and 45, respectfully. To give you some perspective, I have them ranked at 13, 15, 12 and 14, respectfully (and that's just in a 2006 non-keeper draft).

"Well, surely he has other youngsters destined for superstardom above those guys, which explains their low rankings, right? Guys like Delmon Young, Chase Utley and Jeremy Hermida. Right?"

Hell no! He has oldsters Barry Bonds (#5, age 41), Roger Clemens (#25!, age 43), Mariano Rivera (#13, age 36) and Jeff Kent (#37, age 38).

Folks, here's a good rule of thumb: if the guy's over age 35, his keeper ranking should be over his age.*

*I'm going to assume a fairly large number of keepers per team. The smaller the number, the less important keepers become. Thus, Bonds would be more valuable as a keeper in a league that keeps 2-3 players than in a league where many are kept. The reason being, you should be trying to cultivate talent and getting guys like Hermida, Felix Hernandez and Delmon Young on your rosters.

Fantasy Baseball: Sporting News Fantasy Mag Is Out

2006-01-12T16:14:00.000-05:00

Admit it - this is why you keep coming back to No Pepper Games. I'm the guy willing to bite the bullet, cough up the eight sawbucks and read the early (mis)information to help educate the masses where they should be spending their alloted fantasy time (and hard earned).

Hint: Not in the Sporting News Fantasy Baseball magazine which came out this week.

Okay, I will admit that it's good to have a paper copy of everyone's stats from last year, as well as breakdowns by position of everyone available. It's even good to have a rough ranking which you can (and must) fine-tune. And because of that, I'm going to provide small reviews of many of the sections in the days (weeks) ahead. Keep your eyes on this page, because they'll be a-comin'!

Fantasy Baseball: Position Scarcity

2006-01-10T12:54:00.000-05:00

ESPN.com recently released their preliminary starting rosters (here's an NL version). Going through, I was struck by something:

The outfield is the scarcest position in fantasy next year. It's not catcher (guys like Kenji Johjima and Michael Barrett are sliding down early draft boards). It's not second base (there's a surprising amount of forgotten talent in guys like Mark Loretta, Robinson Cano, and Tad Iguchi, not to mention the burgeoning stars of Rickie Weeks, Chase Utley and Jorge Cantu) . It's the outfield.

Yes, that fantasy wasteland of Manny Ramirez, Vlad Guerrero, Carlos Beltran, Ichiro and Left Field, SF.

I'm currently working on my rankings, so I cannot provide solid numbers for you right now. (I certainly will have them at a later date.) But making a very rough draft of the top starting fantasy players at each position (enough to fill a 12 team league's starting rosters), the outfield comes up the shortest. Fortunately or unfortunately, there are quite a bit more sleepers in the OF this year. So I guess the conclusion is:

Scout out a handful of sleepers in the OF, but make sure you have your starters set by about mid-draft.

Fantasy Baseball: League Formatting (5x5 v. 6x6)

2006-01-08T17:30:00.000-05:00

There's been a trend the last couple of years for custom leagues to go above and beyond the traditional 5x5 format. Why?

I have a theory, and a suggestion.

People wanted to add either Slugging, On-Base Percentage, or OPS (On-Base Plus Slugging) to their offensive categories. (This is an idea I strongly recommend. All three of these are more useful statistics than Batting Average on their own. In fact, I suggest either (a) replacing AVG with OPS, (b) replacing AVG with both Slugging and On-Base Percentage or (c) adding OPS as a 6th category).

So people increase their offensive categories to six (or seven in some cases). As a result, they feel they need to increase the number of pitching categories to "even out" the league. But why? Leagues are already lopsided in favor of hitters in 5x5 formats. (How many pitchers do you know that contribute meaningfully to all 5 categories? None.) So what do commissioners do? They add on Holds. In 7x7 leagues, they'll also add on Losses. But you know what? Neither of those categories "evens out" the league. Holds don't make starting pitchers any more valuable. Losses actually devalues SPs. The only thing adding Holds and Losses does is actually REDUCE the value of the entire pitching pool. SPs go from contributing to 80% of the categories to contrinbuting to 66% (in 6x6 leagues) or 57% (7x7 leagues - not discounting how much losses hurt).

In Head-to-Head leagues that utilize these categories, it actually makes SPs worthless. Consider a 7x7 league with both holds and losses as the added categories. What happens if I start nothing but relievers and closers - absolutely no starters? Well, I lock up Losses, Holds and Saves (hopefully), and have an excellent chance at taking ERA and WHIP (if I avoid the Jose Mesas of the world, as top relievers traditionally have much better ratio numbers). That's 4 or 5 of the pitching categories, which is the majority - allowing me to focus on drafting a top-notch offense to sweep the league.

So when you commissioner suggests a "new, exciting, more meaningful" set of statistics to use in your league, tell him - don't mess with the pitching statistics. You're league would be better off with a 6x5 or 7x5 league than going 6x6 or 7x7.

Fantasy Baseball: Resolutions

2006-01-04T11:54:00.000-05:00

Happy New Year!

I usually don't do the whole New Year resolutions thing, but someone close to me was inquiring - so I decided to give it some thought. I want to do a better job on this blog, and my largest obstacle is similar to why I'm terrible at chess - I can't see several moves ahead. So without futher ado, Nor's 2006 New Years Resolutions:

Read the 2006 Baseball Prospectus. My knowledge of prospects and up-and-comers is severely lacking, and this better help. Edit: Since the 2006 Prospectus doesn't come out until the end of February, I got the 2005 edition. To satiate myself, I'm going to look around for online resources and possibly the new Bill James book.

Blog at least every three days. Yahoo! RSS feeds default to "last 3 days", and this will keep me current to any of you unfortunate souls who subscribe.

Get a weekly contributor. If I can get 3 articles up a week, that'd be fantastic. It would even approach acceptability, which far exceeds my expectations of mediocrity.

Find a new blog layout. After perusing Blogger's other pages, I see that my "green at the top" layout is fairly common. I'd like to mix it up a bit.

Utilize images and photos a bit more often. They really spice shit up.

Stop murdering drifters. What can I say - it's a guilty pleasure.

Namedrop as much as I possibly can. A friend's blog mentions other websites and newsservices as much as he can, and gets results from it. The occassional hat tip and link to other forums (Rotochamps.com, Fanball.com, newspapers (Washington Post, New York Times) and websites (espn.com, si.com, cbs.sportsline.com) certainly can't hurt.

Fantasy Baseball: Take a Chance on Me

2005-08-09T15:53:00.000-05:00

That's right - I'm not above using ABBA references in my titles to grab people's attention. Okay, so I may be driving more people away than attracting, but their loss, right? (Right?)

Take a look at Aaron Rowand's splits from last season. Then take a look at them this year. Alright, you're too lazy - I can understand that. Here you go:

2004 Pre All Star Break:
208 ABs, 37 Rs, 9 HRs, 21 RBIs, 9 SBs, .298 AVG

2004 Post All Star Break:
279 ABs, 57 Rs, 15 HRs, 48 RBIs, 8 SBs, .319 AVG

2005 Pre All Star Break:
302 ABs, 43 Rs, 5 HRs, 34 RBIs, 11 SBs, .275 AVG

2005 Post All Star Break:
96 ABs, 17 Rs, 4 HRs, 14 RBIs, 1 SB, .333 AVG

It may be a little early to say he's definitely back this second half, but the numbers suggest a pretty big improvement. I've seen him available in several leagues - he's worth dropping a non-producer for right now. He may be worth trading that extra infielder you've been lugging around that someone could use, if you're an OF short.

Fantasy Baseball: Monday's Statement of the Obvious

2005-08-08T16:38:00.000-05:00

Miquel Cabrera is good.

Folks, you can quote me on that. Mark it on your 2026 calendar, and come back to me if this turns out to be a false statement. Now, he's not Pujols good. Or Bonds good. One could certainly argue that he's not Lou Gehrig good. But man, he's pretty darned good.

You see, I had tagged him as a 2nd or 3rd round pick this year - but in most of my leagues, I was focusing on pitching early in the draft (I'd always gone hitting, so I wanted to see the results - ask me later about how that turned out). So I don't have Miggy in any of my leagues. Not a one. And in the majority of the leagues I'm in that matter, Average isn't a category (OBP and SLG are much better categories).

But yesterday I was looking through the sports section at the league leaders. Cabrera's batting .352 in addition to other fantastic numbers?!? Why didn't someone tell me this? I'd have made an incredibly ridiculous offer to his owner in my keeper league if I had been aware sooner.

Yes, yes - as the proprietor of this establishment, I should take better care of being up to date on the state of the MLB. But average is a fairly unimportant number, even in fantasy baseball. I just made an offer of Manny Ramirez and Jeremy Bonderman for Miggy - typically a vast overpayment. But I think this could really pan out, and Bonderman's not irreplaceable. Miggy just well may be.

Fantasy Baseball: The Best Laid Plans...

2005-08-02T11:21:00.000-05:00

Okay, so it would appear that Phil Nevin was traded to the Rangers*, and won't be getting a lot of time behind the plate - none in fact. Please return him to the free agent market as soon as you get a chance. He'll get a few more HRs going from Petco to Arlington, but he's still an absolutely horrible option at 1B for any normal fantasy team. Without that tasty "C" next to his name, this guy's worthless.

*Uh...Rangers' front office? You have historically had terrible pitching. The deal with trades is, you see, to improve your team by offering excess talent for talent in areas you're lacking. You don't trade away pitching when your pitching sucks, especially for a crappy overrated fossil that will occassionally pinch hit and fill in at DH when your outfielders need a day off. With an infield of Teixeira, Soriano, Young and Blalock, isn't this a bit high of a price to pay?

Phil Nevin: Bad at the Plate in a Whole New Way

2005-07-28T14:22:00.000-05:00

Since Phil Nevin vetoed the deal that would have sent him to Baltimore in exchange for Sidney Ponson*, he's been seeing a bit of work behind the plate as the Padres' catcher. He's available in most leagues - for good reason. He's ranked 40th among firstbasemen, behind notables like Olmeda Saenz and Matt Stairs. In the last month, he's ranked 78th. Ouch.

But as a catcher, he'd be 11th or 12th. That would be considerably lower if ranked within the past month. Regardless, for those in leagues that start two catchers or in much deeper leagues, Phil wouldn't be a bad player to stash on your bench in case he does provide some support. It won't be a dramatic increase in production for your fantasy squad, but you have to start squeezing as much as you can out in these final months.

*Seriously, the Padres were interested in Sidney Ponson? Is there a different Sidney Ponson out there that I'm unaware of, or does someone in the Padres system have stock futures in Grade E beef?

Fantasy Baseball: Freel Bird!

2005-07-28T12:54:00.000-05:00

Ryan Freel returned to the Cincinnati Reds' lineup last weekend after some time on the DL. The time off hasn't exactly slowed him down - he stole 5 bases last night. Granted, it was against the hapless Jason Phillips (who has thrown out a mere 12 of 82 runners on the season), but Freel's other numbers are quite solid (unless your league counts errors).

He's eligible at 2B, 3B and the OF in most leagues. At this point, put him in wherever you need the most help with Runs, SBs and AVG. If that's 3B, then so be it. This is the point of the season where you need to start looking at the categories you feel will bear the most fruit with a little bit of investment.

Paul LoDuca Alert: Trade Him Now

2005-07-27T13:53:00.000-05:00

This is the first annual plea to all Paul LoDuca owners out there to trade him as soon as possible, or at least before your opponents remember that he's absolutely pathetic in the 2nd half. Check out these Jekyl and Hyde splits:

2004 1st Half: 78 Games, 95 Hits, 9 HRs, 43 RBIs, .313 Avg
2004 2nd Half: 65 Games, 58 Hits, 4 HRs, 37 RBIs, .251 Avg

2003 1st Half: 86 Games, 101 Hits, 6 HRs, 34 RBIs, .307 Avg
2003 2nd Half: 61 Games, 54 Hits, 1 HR, 18 RBIs, .226 Avg

2002 1st Half: 80 Games, 98 Hits, 5 HRs, 38 RBIs, .326 Avg
2002 2nd Half: 69 Games, 65 Hits, 5 HRs, 26 RBIs, .233 Avg

2001 1st Half: 54 Games, 71 Hits, 14 HRs, 45 RBIs, .346 Avg
2001 2nd Half: 71 Games, 76 Hits, 11 HRs, 45 RBIs, .298 Avg

Man, that 2001 season was fantastic, wasn't it? Too bad that season has carried him through 4 seasons of being drafted about 5 rounds too early in nearly every fantasy draft since.

Fantasy Baseball: Just Cut It Off, Josh

2005-07-01T10:59:00.000-05:00

Florida Marlins starting pitcher Josh Beckett has been to the disabled list 6 times in the last 4 years because of his blister problems. He's a fireballer with apparent Cy Young potential, but you can't really live up to that potential when you can't stay healthy enough to win 10 games in a season (he went 9-9 last year, starting 26 games).

Josh, it's time to just cut off the offending party. If you remember, during the winter league season before the 2004 season, Kansas City Royal Jeremy Affeldt had a fingernail permanently removed, because he too suffered from blister problems. The result? No more blisters.

I tell ya, if the only thing standing between me and being a dominant MLB strikeout artist was one measly fingernail, I'd pry it out with a pair of pliers. Time to suck it up and yank it, Josh. Until then, I recommend not drafting this DL-cursed disappointment.

Stat Line of the Day: Grady Sizemore

2005-06-29T12:51:00.000-05:00

G. Sizemore cf 3 4 0 0

That's AB/R/H/RBI for those not savvy to the wily ways of the box score. 4 runs out of 3 At Bats is odd enough, but without getting any hits is even stranger. Only one of those runs was the result of a fielder's choice, none got him on base via an error. Very strange indeed.

Anyway, Sizemore isn't receiving very much fanfare this season. Why that is, I don't know (actually, it's because he plays for Cleveland). Those in larger leagues probably don't have the chance to pick this guy up, but he may be available in a handful of regular leagues out there. He's putting up good numbers, and is worth keeping an eye on.

Spice Rack Submission: Mr. Mister Lee

2005-06-29T09:32:00.000-05:00

It's Wednesday, and you know what that means - reader submissions! Unfortunately, it seems most folk are heading out on vacation, so submissions were a little slim this week - do try to do better in the future folks. Coming off the Spice Rack once again to pinch hit this week is VidaBlue, who has noticed a bit of a trend this year...

Exhibit no. 1: Derrek Lee

Is Derrek Lee for real? 3 more hits today, including 2 HRs against his highness, Ben Sheets.

Why don't they just walk the guy? What will it take?

He's hitting .430 in June. Already has 23 HRs and 65 RBIs and it's only June 2[9]. What makes this one particularly special is that it constitutes a supreme power performance in the NSE.

Non-Steroidal Era. Will he keep this up?

Enter Exhibit no. 2: Carlos Lee.

Has 20 HRs and 69 RBIs -- without the high BA and SLG that the above referenced Lee has. Still -- he has done this in Milwaukee -- not too shabby.

Exhibit no. 3: Cliff Lee with 8 W, a 3.56 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP -- 72Ks in 96 IPs.

Sure, he was a psycho last year, as he imploded in the second half. But unlike the first two, he might still be sitting on the wire in shallow Yahoo leagues -- you can't let that happen. Gotta pick him up -- good guy to land in a package deal, if he's on someone else's roster.

You know what to do -- just tell the other owner that Cliff Lee is the Richard Hidalgo of pitching -- that should just about do it.

[stats updated to refect current numbers]

Good points - especially regarding Cliff Lee, the apparent red-headed stepchild of the Lee family.

Fantasy Baseball: Oliver "Hardy" Perez

2005-06-28T15:44:00.000-05:00

Oliver Perez has won 5 of his last 6 decisions, but that will be put on hold for the time being as Mr. Perez decided to kick the clubhouse laundry basket to let off some steam as his team blew his lead the other night. Perez (6-5, 6.16, 1.64) hasn't been doing very well this year, no thanks to some fairly awful run support. However, his recent performances may indicate a return to 2004 form - a return that is currently being camoflauged by his upcoming 15 stint on the DL (due to his laundry basket kicking).

I advise that folks go out and try to trade for Perez, as he seems to somewhat be turning things around. He can be had for a song (offering a lower tier closer might seem like a great deal for both sides), and may provide a solid edge for any struggling fantasy pitching staff.

And don't overlook the promotion of future ace Ian Snell from the AAA Indianapolis Indians this month. He pitched a solid no-hitter earlier this season, and should bolster the Pirates' bullpen (and hopefully hold onto some of Perez's leads).

And Now For Something Completely Different

2005-06-23T10:30:00.000-05:00

I don't imagine there are very many Kansas City T-Bones or Schaumburg Flyers on anyone's fantasy rosters (they're both Northern League teams), but on the small chance that you're in a minor league fantasy league, you'll be happy (horrified?) to know that the fate of your players' stats are in the hands of two video game players, as the first two innings of the T-Bones v. Flyers July 16 matchup will be a virtual simulation:

The first two innings of the July 16th game between the Kansas City T-Bones and the Schaumburg Flyers will be played virtually.

Equipped with Microsoft Xbox game controllers instead of baseball gloves and bats, two video gamers will climb into recliner chairs around home plate at CommunityAmerica Ballpark and slug it out on the park’s 16- by 24-foot video screen.

Their scores from playing two innings of MVP Baseball 2005 on an Xbox will stand when the T-Bones and Flyers take the field to finish the last seven innings of the game.

Folks, I don't make this stuff up, I just report it. My fantasy recommendation: bench your pitchers.

Guest Submission: Blanton and Fossum

2005-06-22T10:26:00.000-05:00

Sorry for the big delay folks - life as billionaire playboy takes its toll every now and then. This week, we have a guest submission by foreign correspondent, VidaBlue. He writes:

For this week, just wanted to raise a green flag on the sneaky emergence of Joe Blanton and Casey Fossum. While neither of them will ever be accused of producing high win totals, their last 2 outings give ample reason to consider adding them. Fossum is striking them out at a clip of 1 per IP, while Blanton is posting higher SO totals than he has when he was doing well during the first few games of the season. And their perifpheral numbers may
be signalling a break-out.

Will it last? Are they for real?

Well, if you've been using fringe starters like K Davies and E Santana, it may be time for a switch-over. Both of the latter face tough competition in their next outings, and chances are, neither will be picked up in a non-keeper setting.

We're going to find out if Fossum was a fluke during his last outing against the Yanks -- he faces them again, next.

---

Thanks for the submission, Vida. Management here at the "No Pepper Games" home office will run a guest column every Wednesday for those budding young writers out there yearning to break free (or see their names in print, whatever the case may be). Either way, I get an extra day to go play golf each week, so keep those submissions coming!

Underrated Thirdbasemen

2005-06-14T10:56:00.000-05:00

Before the season began, all I read about was the depth at third base. At the top of the lists were the usual suspects - Alex Rodriquez, Adrian Beltre, Aramis Ramirez, Melvin Mora, Hank Blalock, Scott Rolen and Eric Chavez.

Nearly halfway through the season, and three of those players are fairly big disappointments (Beltre, Rolen and Chavez). But there's still huge amounts of depth out there, and from unexpected sources. Sure, someone picked up Troy Glaus in later rounds, and his production is somewhat surprising. But did anyone figure that Morgan Ensberg would be putting up nearly identical numbers? Chone Figgins isn't just a bargain at 2B - he can legitimately be put in the 3B slot and without concerns for your lineup. Also putting up bargain-value numbers:

David Wright: Previously touted as the "next Scott Rolen", has quickly replaced the "next" with "current". Keeper league owners are laughing all the way to the bank with this kid.

Shea Hillenbrand: Not creating dominant numbers (he's slightly behind last year's pace), but is just as consistent as ever.

Chad Tracy: These aren't 10-team league numbers, but is a very useable player in larger formats. 15 HRs, 75 RBIs and a .290 average certainly don't hurt in a big league.

Morgan Ensberg: Mentioned previously, but he has shown power in the past, and he's at an age where this year may not be an aberration. If he's still doing it two weeks past the All Star break, I'll say it's completely legit and he'll do it year in and year out.

Prospects to Watch

Aaron Hill: Batting .333 with a handful of triples, this 23 year old shows some talent. Too bad the rest of his lineup is miserable. Maybe in the next few years we'll see big things out the Canadian team.

Felipe Lopez: Currently ranked 7th on Yahoo's rankings among third basemen. Now, he's much better suited for your 2B or SS slots, but this incredibly mis-managed youngster has Michael Young or Nomar potential. This is a 3B article, but keep him in mind next year as a bargain SS or 2B option.

Andy Marte: I mentioned him in an earlier article this week, but his presence in the Braves lineup bears repeating. This kid is GOOD, and could be up to speed as soon as mid-July.

Weekend in Review

2005-06-13T11:06:00.000-05:00

So much power this weekend, so much of it on my bench.

No, I didn't have Hee Sop Choi sitting on my bench - he's nice and comfortable on the free agent market waiting for some chump to pick him up. I don't think he's a bad player - he has a lot of potential (I mean, other than his .123 average against lefties). It's just that he's always been a slow starter, he never gets the chance. Even platooning him gets him off-rhythm.

Anyway, I was one of the owners waiting out the slumps on Sosa, Finley and Preston Wilson. All of them broke out this weekend, all of them did so on my bench. Unfortunately, this is the league where I just don't have the room to put them in. Something has to give - and no one is going to want to trade for them. Speaking of which, if you're in need of some pop, go out and make an offer on these guys. All three could be had on the cheap right now.

Does anyone out there have information on how many homeruns were hit during this interleague stretch? Seems to me that pitchers (except for Roy Oswalt) were just getting slammed all weekend.

I didn't catch the game, but I did see some highlights - is Barry Zito's curveball back? He was doing unnatural things to that ball in the clips I saw.

Fantasy Football Leagues Are Now Open

2005-06-10T11:42:00.000-05:00

Just what I needed to hear this morning - Yahoo has opened up their fantasy football leagues today. While ordinarily I'd be pumped beyond belief about this, two of my main fantasy baseball teams are in a crucial period. I don't want to sound like I'm taking this too seriously (in a relative fashion), it's just that money is on the line!

Regardless, I thought that people should be aware that they should be making some initial football draft lists and actually start worrying about things like TO's holdout, who is going to throw the ball to Randy Moss, if Ricky Williams is serious about quitting the chronic and playing ball, or if it's really a good idea to draft a defense before the 10th Round.

And if anyone has any fantastic fantasy football sites they'd like to suggest, hit that comment link. Let's hear 'em!

Trade Your Yankees

2005-06-09T18:50:00.000-05:00

People love themselves some A-Rod. And they should - he's producing like a madman, and the end doesn't seem to be in sight.

I subscribe to the "hitting breeds hitting" philosophy. Because of that, everyone around A-Rod should start producing more. However, no one will notice. Why? because most people already think they're producing. Take Matsui for instance. He was off to a great start, and isn't doing squat. In fact, he's rated about as well as Jay Gibbons, Raul Ibanez and Craig Monroe. But if you have him on your roster and offered him in a trade - you'd come out smelling like a rose.

But no one ever does! The one set of players I never see involved in trades are Yankee hitters. I see Pavano and Mussina moved around all over the place. But A-Rod certainly isn't being traded. Sheff, Jeter and Posada aren't. Why? Because the Yankee fans out there have big man-crushes on these players, and think they can do no wrong (especially Jeter). If you offered a Yankee to one of these people, they're going to overpay.

The thing is though, it's doubtful you have any Yankees unless you are one of those people. Yankees fly off the draft board quicker than you can say, "Billy Martin, you're fired!" If you have a Yankee, you've already overpaid for him.

If you're one of the small percentage of people who got a Yankee at actual retail value, why not float a few offers out there? Send out a few feelers asking what someone would offer for Derek Jeter? You'll be surprised what you'll get in return.

Feedback on Pierre

2005-06-09T15:48:00.000-05:00

"Nicely done. Loved Dinosteve. The jury is still out on Juan Pierre though -- why would he become so worthless in just 2 months? Will you say the same thing about Mike Lowell, who is supposed to be a quick starter and a second half decliner? What about all those other players who have had slow take offs -- I dunno, Beltre, Beltran, etc. Are they all to be mercilessly dumped for a song? Look at that, Eric Chavez, Victor Martinez and even Bobby Abreu a few weeks before -- they should have all been burning at the stakes, with the shadow of a Mendoza-like ogre looming over them all.Ryan Freel you say? Hummmmmmmmm ... I think Pierre's better numbers are ahead of him. The body is still warm -- don't call in the morgue just yet."

-VBlue

Today, Eric Karabell echoed (echoed, echoed, echoed...) my statements in his KaraBlog article, Puzzling Pierre, Fab Figgins
(subscription required). Pierre just isn't getting faster - he consistently leads the majors in caught stealing. He's been dropped to SEVENTH in the lineup (hitting in front of that RBI machine Alex Gonzalez). None of these are good signs, folks.

I'm not saying go out and drop Pierre. We know what his ceiling is, and it's fantastic. Unfortunately, we're quickly learning what his basement is - and that's the problem. What Pierre owners need to do is figure out (a) if they really need his steals and (b) if they can get decent value for him (you overpaid a 2nd or 3rd round pick on him - if you can finagle a 4-6 Round pick, you should do it in a heartbeat).

Now, the difference here between Pierre and the lamentable lineup of slumpers listed above is that all those players aren't finesse speedsters - for the most part they're bashers who provide pop. They're two different creatures - there's a reason Harold Baines played until he started collecting Social Security and Rickey Henderson... no, wait, that won't work...

Just look through the last ten years of top stolen base leaders, and you just shake your head - so many one-year wonders and so many inconsistent players. The point, again, is that there are always going to be cheap steals out there - why overpay for Pierre?

Trade Offer Advice - Utley/Blalock/Santana for Lee/Soriano/Beckett

2005-06-09T13:37:00.000-05:00

Like I said, I'm more than willing to answer e-mails asking for fantasy advice.

Pogue from fanhome.com writes (after a lengthy discussion of his league's wonderfully complex rules):

"12 team H2H keeper ml points league w/6 keepers
I give: Derrek Lee
(keeper), Soriano (keeper), and Beckett
To get: Blalock, Utley, and Johan
Santana (all keepers)"

His roster looks like:

"1B:
Derrek Lee*
2B: Alfonso Soriano*, Rickie Weeks*
3B: Aubrey Huff*, Andy
Marte*, Eric Hinske*
SS: Pedro Feliz, Felipe Lopez*, Bobby Crosby*
C:
Jason Phillips*
OF: Manny Ramirez, Vernon Wells* Ken Griffey, Jr., Jason
Bay, Brad Hawpe*
SP: Tim Hudson* Josh Beckett, Javier Vasquez, Freddy
Garcia, Brett Myers*, John Lackey*, Jamie Moyer*
RP: Brad Lidge* Jose Mesa,
Eddie Guardado*
IR: Javy Lopez
*Keeper"

With that trade, he'd end up with 6 very solid keepers for years to come (Blalock, Utley, Santana, Marte, Hudson and Lidge - or Huff instead of Hudson if he can get his act together). Without the trade, he's still pretty solid. Now, I'm a huge fan of Utley's potential. But the final factor here is roster space - he'd end up with two or three third basemen with keeper potential (Blalock, Huff and Marte), and Utley at 1B (where's not at full potential - 2B). But, those are small sacrifices to make to get Santana as a keeper. Do the trade.

Keep sending in those questions! Just make sure to include your league size and type, as well as your roster.

Utley Has a Fulltime Job!

2005-06-08T21:14:00.000-05:00

This is fantastic news. Sorta. Because I had drafted Brian Roberts in so many leagues, I've been set at 2B. Normally I would have invested in Utley as a decent backup 2B with tons of potential, but I didn't this year because of Roberts' ridiculous production.

So today, the Phillies traded Placido Polanco to the Detroit Tigers for Ugeth Urbina and infielder Ramon Martinez - a move that completely opens up the 2B job for Chase Utley full-time. (He had previously been platooning with Polanco, starting versus righthanders.)

This will most likely be the hottest young infielder moved around in fantasy leagues this week.

But should he? I say no - Andy Marte should be. With Chipper Jones out 3-4 weeks for the Braves, Andy Marte was called up. He's an incredibly highly touted rookie, with potential on par with Miquel Cabrera. Keeper league owners beware - whoever grabs this kid off of waivers could be running away with the league in the next few years.

Steve Finley - Abner Doubleday's Mentor

2005-06-08T16:21:00.000-05:00

Steve, I love ya. You've carried teams of mine in the past, because each year people avoid you. "He's too old!" "He farts dirt." "He kicked me as a child." The list of complaints goes on. But each year, he just goes out, hits a hair under .300 (dude's been playing since 1989 and never hit above .300), and provides rock-solid consistency in the OF. And he slips in drafts, and can be had dirt cheap in trades. What's not to love?

How about his .223 BA this season? I sure don't love that. His 2:1 K:BB is killing me as well. As of today, he's 3 games behind the 58 games he played for the Dodgers last year, and the numbers are looking frighteningly similar.

This year, he's showing his age. And I don't get it. Luis Gonzalez is hitting it hard, and he's old. Jamie Moyer put up a string of 5 great games this season, and he's old. Roger Clemens has been fantastic, and Randy Johnson (while not putting up Top Two numbers) is getting it done. Hell, Rickey Henderson unretired and is playing International League ball! Why can't Steve Finley at the ripe old age of 67 hit worth a crap?

I heard him on ESPN Radio this afternoon, and he's concerned. He said that he always seems to heat up when the temperature rises, so maybe he'll improve. I don't buy it. His career numbers suggest that his best months are May (.820 OPS) and September (.800 OPS). July isn't far behind (.799 OPS), but it certainly doesn't suggest he's a summer hitter. I don't expect him to continue hitting .220, but I won't be surprised if he stays below .260 for the season. Not what I'm looking for from such a (previously) consistent veteran.

Juan Pierre - the Poor Man's Ryan Freel

2005-06-08T13:32:00.000-05:00

You better believe it, sister - I did just go there. And now you're asking how I can say with a straight face that Ryan Freel, the perpetual platoon utility man is considerably better than Juan Pierre, the fastest man alive?

Easily. Sure, Pierre has consistently been hitting .300 throughout his 6 year career. Sure, Freel's playing time isn't guaranteed. But for the time being (read: all keeper league owners can stop reading now), Pierre's value has all but disappeared. He's not stealing at the rate you drafted him for (15th in MLB), he's certainly not hitting at the rate you drafted him for (.255 - are you kidding me?), and he's certainly not producing in terms of HRs or RBIs (which we didn't expect).

But there's Freel, just chugging along for whatever team picked him up off the free agent list, stealing more bases than Pierre, getting caught a whole lot less frequently than Pierre, and hitting a TON more than Pierre has been. "What about playing time? I don't want an every-other-day player." In the last month, Freel has only had 6 fewer plate appearances than Pierre, but has an OBP over .150 more than Pierre (.392 to .240). Oh, and Freel has wracked up 2 more SBs, 2 more RBIs and 7 Runs over that period. Freel's earned himself a starting job in Cincinnati, and is going to hold on to it.

Additionally, I have yet to mention Freel's multiple position eligibilities - especially 2B, which is typically where you rely on your speed. Sure, the OF has plenty of great speed options (Podsednik, Ichiro, as well as the top power/speed combos like Abreu, Beltran and others), but you have to have some solid power from your other two spots to make up for it - not a .255 hitter that you vastly overpaid for.

Now, I'm not suggesting you go out and trade Pierre for Freel. But I am suggesting you trade Pierre away if you have him. His perceived value is much higher than his actual value. Go out and get a pitcher upgrade for him - make the other owner think he's getting an absolute bargain. Just remember next year before your draft that cheap steals are ALWAYS available - either late in the draft, or on the free agent market. Always have been, always will.

Lance Berkman, Firstbaseman?!?

2005-06-07T19:55:00.000-05:00

No, it's not as surprising as Rick Ankiel going to the outfield or cats sleeping with dogs (or Zell Miller declaring himself a Democrat - but that's for a different sort of blog). But it's changes like this that get me sorta excited, but no one else could really give a damn about.

Okay, I realize that the Astros are absolutely terrible this year. The only thing ESPN seems to focus on is Roger Clemens' batting average (which is absurdly high, by the way). But there is a ton of interesting things going on on this team in terms of fantasy news.

It's old news that Craig Biggio is now a 2B - I'm glad I gave that pretty good odds when drafting this year and grabbed him late in a few leagues. But Willie Tavares and his consistent speed have been cheap fantasy points, Ensberg is really getting hot, Bagwell is done for the year (and maybe his career), and ... okay, maybe that's about it.

The news today (or actually, this weekend) is that Lance Berkman started his fifth game at 1B, making him 1B eligible in Yahoo! leagues. This completely slipped under my radar, even though I've been toying with him in my money league all day. For those teams out there who somehow didn't manage to get a good 1B (and really, what are the odds of that? You'd have to be in a huge 20 team league, or just really suck to not have someone decent at first), Berkman could be a great option for you to target. Lord knows, he's pissing his owner off out there who's been waiting for him to put up Berkman-like numbers. Currently, Berkman's numbers have been very un-Berkman-esque - a fact that a couple of my teams know only too well.

First Post

2005-06-07T15:46:00.000-05:00

No Jerry Maguire mission statement. No grand illusion of wisdom. Just some quick groundwork and a warning that I will mostly be bitching about my injury prone fantasy teams, writing pathetic smack talk only to quickly eat my words as my "brilliant" free agent pickups go the route of Jerome Walton and Bob Hamelin. Also, I'd like to preemptively apologize to any SABR disciples who may stumble upon this mess - I may at times post pathetically incorrect assumptions and projections, and I'm fine with that. If you're not, then move on. I read "Moneyball" and a couple chapters of a "Baseball Prospectus" a few years ago. Both were good reads, but the subject just didn't stick with me. I'll take my baseball subjective and contradictory, thank you very much. It suits me.