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No Pepper Games - A Fantasy Baseball Blog

Thursday, January 12, 2006

Fantasy Baseball: Sporting News analysis - Keeper Leagues

This is maybe the best example I can give of how this magazine is terribly edited. Kevin Wheeler gives an admittedly great description and promotion of keeper leagues. I couldn't agree more with his pros and cons. Keeper leagues promote league longevity, giving the bottom-dwellers something to keep playing for, and a higher sense of team ownership.

But then it all goes downhill when he provides a list of "Top 50 keepers for 2006." This is possibly the worst list I've ever seen. Consider the following - he first states:
In choosing your keeper players, the single most important factor you should consider is consistency. It is too risky to try picking keepers you think are about to have career years.

Then he goes on and ranks Todd Helton (#12) above Mark Teixeira (#16). Apparently, no one told Mr. Wheeler that the magazine was going to rank Teixeira as the #2 firstbaseman (at $37) in the league (behind Albert Pujols), or that Todd Helton was going to be ranked #4 ($28). And please, don't consider the fact that Teixeira is 25 years old and easily a few years away from hitting his prime, where Mr. Helton is 32 and in a decline. And to completely top it all off, they have Mark Teixeira as the Number Four fantasy player, OVERALL. (Helton is at #18).

Now, don't get me wrong - I love Todd Helton. He's been a steady go-to for me for several years now. In fact, he's been an anchor on my keeper team for several years. But this is the year that he gets released back into the wild - with the hopes that I can draft him in Round 2 or 3. But Mark Teixeira is simply fantasy elite now - a top 5 pick for many years to come. There is absolutely no reason to have him at #16 on any list.

And where does he put other young studs like Miguel Cabrera, Carl Crawford, David Wright and Jason Bay? I'm glad you asked. They are ranked 8, 45, 29, 43, and 45, respectfully. To give you some perspective, I have them ranked at 13, 15, 12 and 14, respectfully (and that's just in a 2006 non-keeper draft).

"Well, surely he has other youngsters destined for superstardom above those guys, which explains their low rankings, right? Guys like Delmon Young, Chase Utley and Jeremy Hermida. Right?"

Hell no! He has oldsters Barry Bonds (#5, age 41), Roger Clemens (#25!, age 43), Mariano Rivera (#13, age 36) and Jeff Kent (#37, age 38).

Folks, here's a good rule of thumb: if the guy's over age 35, his keeper ranking should be over his age.*

*I'm going to assume a fairly large number of keepers per team. The smaller the number, the less important keepers become. Thus, Bonds would be more valuable as a keeper in a league that keeps 2-3 players than in a league where many are kept. The reason being, you should be trying to cultivate talent and getting guys like Hermida, Felix Hernandez and Delmon Young on your rosters.

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