Fantasy Baseball: It's Good To Be The...

Gah!

Sorry, but there is no more apt picture to use when talking about King Felix. After giving up the Whoppers and reporting to camp much slimmer than his previous self, Felix Hernandez is poised this year. And since Nando di Fino recently took him #9 overall (his take on the draft) in the mock draft I took part in, I've been giving it some thought, and have given him a second look.

Felix is currently being taken 92nd overall in ESPN drafts, 15th among SPs. That's Round 8 territory for a 12-team league. Is it justified? Last year's numbers indicate that might be about right, if you look only at ERA (4.52) and WHIP (1.34). He's a Mariner, so you know his Win-Loss record isn't great, and that's not going to change much. But let's look deeper:

K:BB - 176:60 - WOW! Over 3:1 K:BB rate is amazing for a starting pitcher.
Groundball Rate: 58.9% - This isn't a well-known stat, so many don't realize how kick-ass this number is. Mid-40s is pretty good. High-40s is awesome. Breaking into the 50s turns a lot of heads. 58.9%?!? This will go down a bit - but not greatly. PECOTA predicts a slight drop to 57.0%.
Age - 21 - I find it hard to hold a lower-than average ERA/WHIP against a 20 year old in the majors. He's clearly worked hard over the post-season, and has excellent peripherals. Is this a reason to take him as a Top 10 SP? No, not really.

Now, I'm not taking him in the first five rounds. There are plenty of better value picks before then. But with the way that SPs have been dropping the last few years (I took Carpenter in the FOURTH round in that mock draft), I'd make back-to-back SP picks in Rounds 5-6 and make Felix one of them. If Felix is averaging 92nd at ESPN, I'll push him way up to #60 and take a chance.

Here's the deal - you're reading this article because you do your homework. You already have an edge going into the draft. A few calculated risks focused around a research-based approach is going to help you dominate your league. If there isn't anyone glaringly obvious on your draft board remaining and Felix Hernandez remains, go with the pure unadulterated talent and have it your way.