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No Pepper Games - A Fantasy Baseball Blog

Sunday, March 04, 2007

Fantasy Baseball: Mock Draft Analysis (Rds 11-24)

Round 11
I'm a very big fan of Cole Hamels this year, and that pick really threw me off. I scrambled a bit, had a hole at 2B, and went with Kendrick. I definitely could have waited a round, because everyone after me passed on Kinsler, and he was a great pick in Rd. 12. I like the Papelbon pick here very much - if he doesn't excel as a starter (and if he does, this is a steal), the Sox may likely move him to closer (and if he does, this is a steal). Uncertainty in Papelbon's case is an illogical drop in his fantasy value. Take note. Best Pick: Cole Hamels Worst Pick: Howie Kendrick

Round 12
Man this was a great round. A lot of people targeting players they seem to have their eye on, and are willing to take a chance on. Three really stand out - Encarncion, Kinsler and Hill. These are all players I'd love to have on my team - but I went with Lidge, who I really like for a return to greatness (Albert's HR is two years removed - get it out of your head, Brad). Best Pick: Ian Kinsler/Cole Hamels Worst Pick: Michael Cuddyer

Round 13
Look at the injury histories here! I'm not injury adverse, but it's interesting to see how these picks clump together. Piazza is in a perfect situation to excel, and a reason why we should think about passing on the top 3 catchers - they go too soon, and the next tier gets taken MUCH later. Best Pick: Mike Piazza Worst Pick: Eric Gagne (I'm just not sold on his 15 IP in the last 2 years) My Pick: Coco Crisp - more balance, and an underrated OF option

Round 14
At this point in the draft, I started getting nervous - my "no 1B until everything is filled" strategy relies on going with Adrian Gonzalez or Conor Jackson (or other late options). I'm not sure how well that translates in H2H. It also prevents you from grabbing a top corner option for your Util spot. I think Gonzalez is a great player, but is a bit more of a Roto specialist. Best Pick: Eric Byrnes (I love this guy, and he's always a late option in the OF) Worst Pick: Freddy Sanchez (he's an H2H non-entity) My Pick: Adrian Gonzalez

Round 15
Say, that reminds me... Felipe Lopez is scheduled to start at 2B, and is an excellent option there. With everyone grabbing SSs so soon in drafts, Lopez is typically left on the table and sits there. Keep that in mind if your league is going 2B-heavy. This round is also a good example of how many position players there are this year, and that reaching for a few SPs early doesn't short you badly on offense - we see excellent picks here for C, 1B, 2B and OF. Best Pick: Kenji Johjima Worst Pick: Adam LaRoche My Pick: Adam LaRoche - not that it was a terrible pick, it's just that there weren't any other options for worst.

Round 16
People are starting to fill holes. I like the Wainwright pick - there's a lot of potential there. However, I'm not sold on Willingham. People loved him as a Catcher last year, and he did put up very good numbers. You can count on close to 25 HRs and 85 RBIs. But I'm not sitting with a hole at OF counting on him to be there. Best Pick: Jonny Gomes (he's the perfect pick for Nando's H2H strategy here) Worst Pick: Mike Cameron My Pick: Rich Harden


Round 17
I have been loading up on youth players - and it could either bite me in the ass or pay off very big. Chris Young (Ari-OF) is going to make a solid run for NL ROY, and Rd. 17 is not that big of a risk with all my starters in place. There are still some good closer options taken, but I'm not biting. One bad outing can ruin a week in H2H. It's better to punt saves than to jeopardize ERA and WHIP. Best Pick: AJ Burnett Worst Pick: Joe Borowski My Pick: Chris B. Young

Round 18
Another sleeper round - every 3 rounds since Rd. 9 it looks like. I was all sleepered out, and went for pure power - Frank Thomas. He surprises every year, and he's devalued every year. However, I wavered between him and Kei Igawa, and Igawa was taken in the next round - I think Frank would have still been available. There is no reason to wait on Igawa - I think people are just seeing how far he'll fall nowadays, and you should be the one to elicit the "Dammit!"s, not the one who's shouting them. Best Pick: Alex Gordon Worst Pick: Morgan Ensberg (not with Gordon on the board) My Pick: Frank Thomas

Round 19
This round is 50/50 on good/bad options. Igawa was robbery in Round 19, and so is Russell Martin. He's not going to put up numbers like McCann, but he's a similar comparison to where McCann was being taken last year. The Otsuka pick is odd, but it's a hancuff, and a smart one at that. Best Pick: Kei Igawa Worst Pick: Ted Lilly My Pick: Kelvim Escobar

Rounds 20-24
Steals:
Mark Prior (Rd. 20), Salomon Torres (Rd. 21), Ivan Rodriquez (Rd. 22), Curtis Granderson (Rd. 22), Akinori Iwamura (Rd. 24)
General Thoughts: There are still players available that will work in a roster to fill in for injuries or off days. There are some stat-specialists like Podsednik and Shields.
Surprises: No one took a flier on either Homer Bailey or Philip Hughes. I'm not sure in a 10 team league whether that should be expected or not.

My Final Picks:

Anthony Reyes: The Cardinals are going to win a lot of games, and Reyes is currently in line to chalk up a number of those. His peripherals are on the upswing, but I'm not tied to Anthony.
John Patterson: There is no risk in the 21st Round, only upside.
Taylor Tankersley: The potential to close, and has excellent support ERA and WHIP numbers.
Ray Durham: Are you kidding me? If I need to compete in HR at any time, he's an excellent option to back up Kendrick.
Pedro Martinez: His recovery seems to be a bit ahead of schedule, but I'm not holding my breath. He's going straight on my DL, opening a roster slot. When/If he gets back, he's going to continue putting up excellent WHIP/ERA numbers, and decent Ks.

All in all, I'm quite pleased with my team. I think I got out-drafted, but there were people getting paid a lot more than I in this league. That's not exactly a strong excuse, but it works for me! There were a few of my picks that I thought were really good that didn't get a reaction, a few that I didn't that did. The only real surprises came from ESPN/TMR, but those were based more purely off of projections rather than taking into account average draft positions. I feel that my team is more strongly suited for a H2H league, while some of the better rosters may not.

Either way, I had a great time drafting this team and being involved in this. I want to thank everyone involved

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