Fantasy Baseball: S-Words for $500

Set your VCRs ... er ... Tivos, for you cool kids out there.

Date: Tuesday, March 27
Time: 12:00pm (noon) EDT
Where: ESPN

What: The Baseball Tonight crew is going to hold their fantasy draft. And this is bound to be hilarious. Remember when John Kruk predicted Randy Johnson would win 30 games in 2005? Yeah, those were special times. And it's bound to happen again.

Here's what's going to happen: The first round is going to be absolutely ridiculous, as Kruk, Ravech and Gammons are going to display absolutely no insight into how fantasy baseball works, but basing this episode on fantasy ball knowing that the concept should get some exposure.

Predictions:

• Peter Gammons is going to kill all of them (if there is an actual draft). I doubt he plays any fantasy baseball, but I imagine he understands the concept of "scarcity", "upside" and "math". He also has an encyclopedic understanding of every aspect of the game, a trait held by all sports-loving cyborgs that walk this Earth.
  
• John Kruk will take Joe Mauer with his first pick. If they don't draft, he'll say that "Mauer is a no-brain first round pick. He will then name about 7 more catchers that would be solid players to have on your team, citing this as evidence for "scarcity".
  
• Karl Ravech will do a decent job, as he's the most likely to have been in a league before and done well. He will look disdainfully towards Kruky after all of Kruk's inexplicable picks.
  
• Someone will name David Eckstein as a sleeper, as his grit and determination are important characteristics to have in a fantasy bench player.
  
• Someone else will pick Gary Matthews, Jr. under the false understanding that making one incredible catch a year somehow contributes to your fantasy standings.

I cannot wait. And the best part is that at no point will they actually take advantage of the resources of ESPN and call on Funston or Karabell to join in. Listen, this didn't have to be an episode devoted to fantasy baseball - but it is. There are a lot of discussions that can be had comparing fantasy production and actual production, projections, position battles in spring training, etc. I can hope, but I have my doubts.

Fantasy Baseball: It's Good To Be The...

Gah!

Sorry, but there is no more apt picture to use when talking about King Felix. After giving up the Whoppers and reporting to camp much slimmer than his previous self, Felix Hernandez is poised this year. And since Nando di Fino recently took him #9 overall (his take on the draft) in the mock draft I took part in, I've been giving it some thought, and have given him a second look.

Felix is currently being taken 92nd overall in ESPN drafts, 15th among SPs. That's Round 8 territory for a 12-team league. Is it justified? Last year's numbers indicate that might be about right, if you look only at ERA (4.52) and WHIP (1.34). He's a Mariner, so you know his Win-Loss record isn't great, and that's not going to change much. But let's look deeper:

K:BB - 176:60 - WOW! Over 3:1 K:BB rate is amazing for a starting pitcher.
Groundball Rate: 58.9% - This isn't a well-known stat, so many don't realize how kick-ass this number is. Mid-40s is pretty good. High-40s is awesome. Breaking into the 50s turns a lot of heads. 58.9%?!? This will go down a bit - but not greatly. PECOTA predicts a slight drop to 57.0%.
Age - 21 - I find it hard to hold a lower-than average ERA/WHIP against a 20 year old in the majors. He's clearly worked hard over the post-season, and has excellent peripherals. Is this a reason to take him as a Top 10 SP? No, not really.

Now, I'm not taking him in the first five rounds. There are plenty of better value picks before then. But with the way that SPs have been dropping the last few years (I took Carpenter in the FOURTH round in that mock draft), I'd make back-to-back SP picks in Rounds 5-6 and make Felix one of them. If Felix is averaging 92nd at ESPN, I'll push him way up to #60 and take a chance.

Here's the deal - you're reading this article because you do your homework. You already have an edge going into the draft. A few calculated risks focused around a research-based approach is going to help you dominate your league. If there isn't anyone glaringly obvious on your draft board remaining and Felix Hernandez remains, go with the pure unadulterated talent and have it your way.

Fantasy Baseball: RotoHog Fantasy Baseball

There's a brand new form of fantasy baseball out there, and I'm really excited about it. RotoHog.com is offering something fresh to challenge and stimulate our baseball brains - cash money. They're offering $100,000 to the top performing owner. It's a global-market based system, where a player's value is derived from market supply and demand. And the league is FREE.

"But those leagues have been around forever!" Yes, yes they have. But this is different - those other leagues (like Sporting News fantasy baseball) allowed everyone to have the same players, just so long as you were willing to pay the price. RotoHog limits the amount of players available - the key "supply" side of the equation.

How it works: You no longer have to worry about organizing you and your 11 friends together in a specific time and place. You draft when YOU are available to draft. Each draft is compromised of 12 team owners, regardless of which league they are in. Each draft has a full complement of players to draft. If the players you want to draft are taken by other owners, you can purchase those players on the open market from other owners. You then compete on a number of levels - against your league (and you can join as many leagues as you like), and against everyone else in RotoHog. It's a points-based league, so all team performance is easily comparable across the entire site.

Again, it's free. Take some time to check out the FAQ, the instructional video, and definitely make sure you do a mock draft simulation to familiarize yourself with the controls.

RotoHog.com leagues are open, and begin drafting next week. Feel free to use the referral code of "NoPepperGames" (no spaces).

NoPepperGames: Franchise Owners Needed

A casual franchise league I'm in is in need of a few owners (five). It's a 6x6 Head-to-Head league with 16 teams. Each team is assigned to a particular MLB team, and you have the rights to all the players that were within that system at the beginning of the 2006 season. There is a supplemental draft before each season. There are a few other miscellaneous rules that we can fill you in on if you're interested.

Further league information can be found in this thread.

The teams available are: Toronto Blue Jays, Chicago Cubs, St. Louis Cardinals, Houston Astros, and the Philadelphia Phillies. Their current rosters can be found in the linked thread above.

Fantasy Baseball: Mock Draft Analysis (Rds 11-24)

Round 11
I'm a very big fan of Cole Hamels this year, and that pick really threw me off. I scrambled a bit, had a hole at 2B, and went with Kendrick. I definitely could have waited a round, because everyone after me passed on Kinsler, and he was a great pick in Rd. 12. I like the Papelbon pick here very much - if he doesn't excel as a starter (and if he does, this is a steal), the Sox may likely move him to closer (and if he does, this is a steal). Uncertainty in Papelbon's case is an illogical drop in his fantasy value. Take note. Best Pick: Cole Hamels Worst Pick: Howie Kendrick

Round 12
Man this was a great round. A lot of people targeting players they seem to have their eye on, and are willing to take a chance on. Three really stand out - Encarncion, Kinsler and Hill. These are all players I'd love to have on my team - but I went with Lidge, who I really like for a return to greatness (Albert's HR is two years removed - get it out of your head, Brad). Best Pick: Ian Kinsler/Cole Hamels Worst Pick: Michael Cuddyer

Round 13
Look at the injury histories here! I'm not injury adverse, but it's interesting to see how these picks clump together. Piazza is in a perfect situation to excel, and a reason why we should think about passing on the top 3 catchers - they go too soon, and the next tier gets taken MUCH later. Best Pick: Mike Piazza Worst Pick: Eric Gagne (I'm just not sold on his 15 IP in the last 2 years) My Pick: Coco Crisp - more balance, and an underrated OF option

Round 14
At this point in the draft, I started getting nervous - my "no 1B until everything is filled" strategy relies on going with Adrian Gonzalez or Conor Jackson (or other late options). I'm not sure how well that translates in H2H. It also prevents you from grabbing a top corner option for your Util spot. I think Gonzalez is a great player, but is a bit more of a Roto specialist. Best Pick: Eric Byrnes (I love this guy, and he's always a late option in the OF) Worst Pick: Freddy Sanchez (he's an H2H non-entity) My Pick: Adrian Gonzalez

Round 15
Say, that reminds me... Felipe Lopez is scheduled to start at 2B, and is an excellent option there. With everyone grabbing SSs so soon in drafts, Lopez is typically left on the table and sits there. Keep that in mind if your league is going 2B-heavy. This round is also a good example of how many position players there are this year, and that reaching for a few SPs early doesn't short you badly on offense - we see excellent picks here for C, 1B, 2B and OF. Best Pick: Kenji Johjima Worst Pick: Adam LaRoche My Pick: Adam LaRoche - not that it was a terrible pick, it's just that there weren't any other options for worst.

Round 16
People are starting to fill holes. I like the Wainwright pick - there's a lot of potential there. However, I'm not sold on Willingham. People loved him as a Catcher last year, and he did put up very good numbers. You can count on close to 25 HRs and 85 RBIs. But I'm not sitting with a hole at OF counting on him to be there. Best Pick: Jonny Gomes (he's the perfect pick for Nando's H2H strategy here) Worst Pick: Mike Cameron My Pick: Rich Harden


Round 17
I have been loading up on youth players - and it could either bite me in the ass or pay off very big. Chris Young (Ari-OF) is going to make a solid run for NL ROY, and Rd. 17 is not that big of a risk with all my starters in place. There are still some good closer options taken, but I'm not biting. One bad outing can ruin a week in H2H. It's better to punt saves than to jeopardize ERA and WHIP. Best Pick: AJ Burnett Worst Pick: Joe Borowski My Pick: Chris B. Young

Round 18
Another sleeper round - every 3 rounds since Rd. 9 it looks like. I was all sleepered out, and went for pure power - Frank Thomas. He surprises every year, and he's devalued every year. However, I wavered between him and Kei Igawa, and Igawa was taken in the next round - I think Frank would have still been available. There is no reason to wait on Igawa - I think people are just seeing how far he'll fall nowadays, and you should be the one to elicit the "Dammit!"s, not the one who's shouting them. Best Pick: Alex Gordon Worst Pick: Morgan Ensberg (not with Gordon on the board) My Pick: Frank Thomas

Round 19
This round is 50/50 on good/bad options. Igawa was robbery in Round 19, and so is Russell Martin. He's not going to put up numbers like McCann, but he's a similar comparison to where McCann was being taken last year. The Otsuka pick is odd, but it's a hancuff, and a smart one at that. Best Pick: Kei Igawa Worst Pick: Ted Lilly My Pick: Kelvim Escobar

Rounds 20-24
Steals: Mark Prior (Rd. 20), Salomon Torres (Rd. 21), Ivan Rodriquez (Rd. 22), Curtis Granderson (Rd. 22), Akinori Iwamura (Rd. 24)
General Thoughts: There are still players available that will work in a roster to fill in for injuries or off days. There are some stat-specialists like Podsednik and Shields.
Surprises: No one took a flier on either Homer Bailey or Philip Hughes. I'm not sure in a 10 team league whether that should be expected or not.

My Final Picks:
Anthony Reyes: The Cardinals are going to win a lot of games, and Reyes is currently in line to chalk up a number of those. His peripherals are on the upswing, but I'm not tied to Anthony.
John Patterson: There is no risk in the 21st Round, only upside.
Taylor Tankersley: The potential to close, and has excellent support ERA and WHIP numbers.
Ray Durham: Are you kidding me? If I need to compete in HR at any time, he's an excellent option to back up Kendrick.
Pedro Martinez: His recovery seems to be a bit ahead of schedule, but I'm not holding my breath. He's going straight on my DL, opening a roster slot. When/If he gets back, he's going to continue putting up excellent WHIP/ERA numbers, and decent Ks.

All in all, I'm quite pleased with my team. I think I got out-drafted, but there were people getting paid a lot more than I in this league. That's not exactly a strong excuse, but it works for me! There were a few of my picks that I thought were really good that didn't get a reaction, a few that I didn't that did. The only real surprises came from ESPN/TMR, but those were based more purely off of projections rather than taking into account average draft positions. I feel that my team is more strongly suited for a H2H league, while some of the better rosters may not.

Either way, I had a great time drafting this team and being involved in this. I want to thank everyone involved

Fantasy Baseball: Mock Draft Analysis (Rds 1-10)

I was recently asked to participate in an experts' mock draft this evening, sponsored by FantasyInsiderOnline.com. Not only was this my first major draft of the year, it was certainly my first expert draft of my career. I want to quickly thank FIO.com for organizing this and inviting me, and everyone that participated. It was a wonderfully competitive draft, and I'm interested to see how this turns out, even though we're not playing it out.

The Participants and Draft Order:

1 – Joe Ribando of Insider Baseball (www.insiderbaseball.com)

2 – Ted Kasten of Draft Dynamix (www.draftdynamix.com)

3 – Geoff Stein of Mock Draft Central (www.mockdraftcentral.com)

4 – Brad Stewart of MLB Front Office (www.mlbfo.blogspot.com)

5 – Tim Miller of Fantasy Insider Online (www.fantasyinsideronline.com)

6 – Me!

7 – Matt Hinzpeter of Fantasy Insider Online (www.fantasyinsideronline.com)

8 – Jason Pitts of Fantasy Baseball Mafia (www.fantasybaseballmafia.com)

9 – Nando Di Fino of Talented Mr. Roto/ESPN Fantasy Sports (www.talentedmrroto.com)

10 – Paul Greco of Fantasy Baseball Guy (www.fantasybaseballguy.com)

The results can be found here.

Round One
I'm as eager to hear about Nando's draft theory as you are, and I'll link to it once he posts (edit: Nando explains himself). He said in-draft that he came prepared with a specific plan, and if Felix Hernandez is at the top of that list, we'll see how that goes. Ryan Howard really dropped, and FB.com got an absolute steal. Best Pick: Ryan Howard Worst Pick: Felix Hernandez My Pick: Carl Crawford - My goal going into this draft was to strongly compete in Runs, Stolen Bases and Batting Average. Crawford gives me all of those, and the chance to steal HRs occassionally.

Round Two
I really debated taking Travis Hafner, but he just didn't fit my plan. Plus, Miggy is consistently ranked higher, including on my board. His superior batting is going to consistently win me AVG each week. No big surprises here. Best Pick: Vladimir Guerrero Worst Pick: Manny Ramirez My Pick: Miguel Cabrera

Round Three
And let the shortstop race begin! Half of the starting shortstops are gone by the end of this round, and that's mind-boggling. It's a 10 team league - SSs do not need to move this quickly. FB.com wins the day again with an incredibly big upside pick. Best Pick: Andruw Jones Worst Pick: Hanley Ramirez My Pick: Jason Bay - Jones or Wells may have been better, but again, I'm going for balance.

Round Four
He slid, and he slid and he slid. So I took Carpenter, and he was followed up by 7 more pitchers within the next 15 picks. People start fleshing out their particular draft strategies, as a few reaches are being made. Bobby Abreu is taken, while Coco Crisp and Eric Byrnes await their turn 9 rounds later, and Delmon and Damon 5 rounds later. Best Pick: Chris Carpenter Worst Pick: Bill Hall - Nando could have had Utley and Felix in Rds 1 and 4, instead of Felix and Bill Hall.

Round Five
I wanted Furcal - but Geoff at Mock Draft Central stole him (just like he ended up stealing about 8 of my picks - great draft, Geoff). However, Young's higher AVG should make up for his lack of SBs. Peavy and Webb here are bargains, even though Inside Baseball accidentally hit "draft" on Peavy. Best Pick: Brandon Webb Worst Pick: Aramis Ramirez - great player, maybe a round too early. My Pick: Michael Young

Round Six
4 closers - and I think they're all justified. Ray may have been a better pick than Victor, catchers really dropped in this draft. However, I don't have closers regarded that highly in H2H leagues (20 IP min.), so Victor won out. I have Sheets higher than Smoltz, but both are ranked around here. Best Pick: Ben Sheets Worst Pick: Nick Swisher - no offense to Nando, but Swisher could be had much later. It's certainly going to drive traffic to his site in the near future! My Pick: Victor Martinez

Round Seven
Cano and Roberts are on a small 2nd tier at 2B, and both lasted quite a while. I've advocated to wait even longer, but this is not a bad time to grab these guys. Now was the time for a reliever, but Kazmir is mocking me right after my Cordero pick. Best Pick: Hideki Matsui Worst Pick: Chad Cordero My Pick: Chad Cordero

Round Eight
The 10th SS off the board is Troy Glaus. He may not be eligible in every league, but damn that's a sexy pick. Interesting picks here - Draft Dynamix has forsaken AVG with his Dunn pick, but going back to look at his previous rounds, and he looks to have been in the perfect position to take him. Best Pick: Ryan Zimmerman Worst Pick: Rickie Weeks My Picks: Jeremy Bonderman

Round Nine
What an interesting round. 3 'toolsy' players in Rios, Damon and Young, 5 great pitchers with a lot to prove in 2007, along with Helton and Ordonez who may be on the decline, but can put up Round 5 numbers. Best Pick: Todd Helton Worst Pick: Todd Helton (see what I did there?) My Pick: Delmon Young - the kid has everything I need for this team - SBs, a great average, and some power

Round Ten
My Bonderman pick doesn't look as great as there are so many quality SPs left on the board. However, Jered Weaver in Rd. 10 is a fantastic bargain. But with all these choices, I think Verlander's huge increase in IPs last year is going to hurt that pick. Best Pick: Gary Sheffield Worst Pick: Justin Verlander My Pick: Jered Weaver