Stat Line of the Day: Grady Sizemore

G. Sizemore cf 3 4 0 0

That's AB/R/H/RBI for those not savvy to the wily ways of the box score. 4 runs out of 3 At Bats is odd enough, but without getting any hits is even stranger. Only one of those runs was the result of a fielder's choice, none got him on base via an error. Very strange indeed.

Anyway, Sizemore isn't receiving very much fanfare this season. Why that is, I don't know (actually, it's because he plays for Cleveland). Those in larger leagues probably don't have the chance to pick this guy up, but he may be available in a handful of regular leagues out there. He's putting up good numbers, and is worth keeping an eye on.

Spice Rack Submission: Mr. Mister Lee

It's Wednesday, and you know what that means - reader submissions! Unfortunately, it seems most folk are heading out on vacation, so submissions were a little slim this week - do try to do better in the future folks. Coming off the Spice Rack once again to pinch hit this week is VidaBlue, who has noticed a bit of a trend this year...

Exhibit no. 1: Derrek Lee

Is Derrek Lee for real? 3 more hits today, including 2 HRs against his highness, Ben Sheets.

Why don't they just walk the guy? What will it take?

He's hitting .430 in June. Already has 23 HRs and 65 RBIs and it's only June 2[9]. What makes this one particularly special is that it constitutes a supreme power performance in the NSE.

Non-Steroidal Era. Will he keep this up?

Enter Exhibit no. 2: Carlos Lee.

Has 20 HRs and 69 RBIs -- without the high BA and SLG that the above referenced Lee has. Still -- he has done this in Milwaukee -- not too shabby.

Exhibit no. 3: Cliff Lee with 8 W, a 3.56 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP -- 72Ks in 96 IPs.

Sure, he was a psycho last year, as he imploded in the second half. But unlike the first two, he might still be sitting on the wire in shallow Yahoo leagues -- you can't let that happen. Gotta pick him up -- good guy to land in a package deal, if he's on someone else's roster.

You know what to do -- just tell the other owner that Cliff Lee is the Richard Hidalgo of pitching -- that should just about do it.

[stats updated to refect current numbers]

Good points - especially regarding Cliff Lee, the apparent red-headed stepchild of the Lee family.

Fantasy Baseball: Oliver "Hardy" Perez

Oliver Perez has won 5 of his last 6 decisions, but that will be put on hold for the time being as Mr. Perez decided to kick the clubhouse laundry basket to let off some steam as his team blew his lead the other night. Perez (6-5, 6.16, 1.64) hasn't been doing very well this year, no thanks to some fairly awful run support. However, his recent performances may indicate a return to 2004 form - a return that is currently being camoflauged by his upcoming 15 stint on the DL (due to his laundry basket kicking).

I advise that folks go out and try to trade for Perez, as he seems to somewhat be turning things around. He can be had for a song (offering a lower tier closer might seem like a great deal for both sides), and may provide a solid edge for any struggling fantasy pitching staff.

And don't overlook the promotion of future ace Ian Snell from the AAA Indianapolis Indians this month. He pitched a solid no-hitter earlier this season, and should bolster the Pirates' bullpen (and hopefully hold onto some of Perez's leads).

And Now For Something Completely Different

I don't imagine there are very many Kansas City T-Bones or Schaumburg Flyers on anyone's fantasy rosters (they're both Northern League teams), but on the small chance that you're in a minor league fantasy league, you'll be happy (horrified?) to know that the fate of your players' stats are in the hands of two video game players, as the first two innings of the T-Bones v. Flyers July 16 matchup will be a virtual simulation:

The first two innings of the July 16th game between the Kansas City T-Bones and the Schaumburg Flyers will be played virtually.

Equipped with Microsoft Xbox game controllers instead of baseball gloves and bats, two video gamers will climb into recliner chairs around home plate at CommunityAmerica Ballpark and slug it out on the park’s 16- by 24-foot video screen.

Their scores from playing two innings of MVP Baseball 2005 on an Xbox will stand when the T-Bones and Flyers take the field to finish the last seven innings of the game.

Folks, I don't make this stuff up, I just report it. My fantasy recommendation: bench your pitchers.

Guest Submission: Blanton and Fossum

Sorry for the big delay folks - life as billionaire playboy takes its toll every now and then. This week, we have a guest submission by foreign correspondent, VidaBlue. He writes:

For this week, just wanted to raise a green flag on the sneaky emergence of Joe Blanton and Casey Fossum. While neither of them will ever be accused of producing high win totals, their last 2 outings give ample reason to consider adding them. Fossum is striking them out at a clip of 1 per IP, while Blanton is posting higher SO totals than he has when he was doing well during the first few games of the season. And their perifpheral numbers may
be signalling a break-out.

Will it last? Are they for real?

Well, if you've been using fringe starters like K Davies and E Santana, it may be time for a switch-over. Both of the latter face tough competition in their next outings, and chances are, neither will be picked up in a non-keeper setting.

We're going to find out if Fossum was a fluke during his last outing against the Yanks -- he faces them again, next.

---

Thanks for the submission, Vida. Management here at the "No Pepper Games" home office will run a guest column every Wednesday for those budding young writers out there yearning to break free (or see their names in print, whatever the case may be). Either way, I get an extra day to go play golf each week, so keep those submissions coming!

Underrated Thirdbasemen

Before the season began, all I read about was the depth at third base. At the top of the lists were the usual suspects - Alex Rodriquez, Adrian Beltre, Aramis Ramirez, Melvin Mora, Hank Blalock, Scott Rolen and Eric Chavez.

Nearly halfway through the season, and three of those players are fairly big disappointments (Beltre, Rolen and Chavez). But there's still huge amounts of depth out there, and from unexpected sources. Sure, someone picked up Troy Glaus in later rounds, and his production is somewhat surprising. But did anyone figure that Morgan Ensberg would be putting up nearly identical numbers? Chone Figgins isn't just a bargain at 2B - he can legitimately be put in the 3B slot and without concerns for your lineup. Also putting up bargain-value numbers:

David Wright: Previously touted as the "next Scott Rolen", has quickly replaced the "next" with "current". Keeper league owners are laughing all the way to the bank with this kid.

Shea Hillenbrand: Not creating dominant numbers (he's slightly behind last year's pace), but is just as consistent as ever.

Chad Tracy: These aren't 10-team league numbers, but is a very useable player in larger formats. 15 HRs, 75 RBIs and a .290 average certainly don't hurt in a big league.

Morgan Ensberg: Mentioned previously, but he has shown power in the past, and he's at an age where this year may not be an aberration. If he's still doing it two weeks past the All Star break, I'll say it's completely legit and he'll do it year in and year out.

Prospects to Watch

Aaron Hill: Batting .333 with a handful of triples, this 23 year old shows some talent. Too bad the rest of his lineup is miserable. Maybe in the next few years we'll see big things out the Canadian team.

Felipe Lopez: Currently ranked 7th on Yahoo's rankings among third basemen. Now, he's much better suited for your 2B or SS slots, but this incredibly mis-managed youngster has Michael Young or Nomar potential. This is a 3B article, but keep him in mind next year as a bargain SS or 2B option.

Andy Marte: I mentioned him in an earlier article this week, but his presence in the Braves lineup bears repeating. This kid is GOOD, and could be up to speed as soon as mid-July.

Weekend in Review

So much power this weekend, so much of it on my bench.

No, I didn't have Hee Sop Choi sitting on my bench - he's nice and comfortable on the free agent market waiting for some chump to pick him up. I don't think he's a bad player - he has a lot of potential (I mean, other than his .123 average against lefties). It's just that he's always been a slow starter, he never gets the chance. Even platooning him gets him off-rhythm.

Anyway, I was one of the owners waiting out the slumps on Sosa, Finley and Preston Wilson. All of them broke out this weekend, all of them did so on my bench. Unfortunately, this is the league where I just don't have the room to put them in. Something has to give - and no one is going to want to trade for them. Speaking of which, if you're in need of some pop, go out and make an offer on these guys. All three could be had on the cheap right now.

Does anyone out there have information on how many homeruns were hit during this interleague stretch? Seems to me that pitchers (except for Roy Oswalt) were just getting slammed all weekend.

I didn't catch the game, but I did see some highlights - is Barry Zito's curveball back? He was doing unnatural things to that ball in the clips I saw.

Fantasy Football Leagues Are Now Open

Just what I needed to hear this morning - Yahoo has opened up their fantasy football leagues today. While ordinarily I'd be pumped beyond belief about this, two of my main fantasy baseball teams are in a crucial period. I don't want to sound like I'm taking this too seriously (in a relative fashion), it's just that money is on the line!

Regardless, I thought that people should be aware that they should be making some initial football draft lists and actually start worrying about things like TO's holdout, who is going to throw the ball to Randy Moss, if Ricky Williams is serious about quitting the chronic and playing ball, or if it's really a good idea to draft a defense before the 10th Round.

And if anyone has any fantastic fantasy football sites they'd like to suggest, hit that comment link. Let's hear 'em!

Trade Your Yankees

People love themselves some A-Rod. And they should - he's producing like a madman, and the end doesn't seem to be in sight.

I subscribe to the "hitting breeds hitting" philosophy. Because of that, everyone around A-Rod should start producing more. However, no one will notice. Why? because most people already think they're producing. Take Matsui for instance. He was off to a great start, and isn't doing squat. In fact, he's rated about as well as Jay Gibbons, Raul Ibanez and Craig Monroe. But if you have him on your roster and offered him in a trade - you'd come out smelling like a rose.

But no one ever does! The one set of players I never see involved in trades are Yankee hitters. I see Pavano and Mussina moved around all over the place. But A-Rod certainly isn't being traded. Sheff, Jeter and Posada aren't. Why? Because the Yankee fans out there have big man-crushes on these players, and think they can do no wrong (especially Jeter). If you offered a Yankee to one of these people, they're going to overpay.

The thing is though, it's doubtful you have any Yankees unless you are one of those people. Yankees fly off the draft board quicker than you can say, "Billy Martin, you're fired!" If you have a Yankee, you've already overpaid for him.

If you're one of the small percentage of people who got a Yankee at actual retail value, why not float a few offers out there? Send out a few feelers asking what someone would offer for Derek Jeter? You'll be surprised what you'll get in return.

Feedback on Pierre

"Nicely done. Loved Dinosteve. The jury is still out on Juan Pierre though -- why would he become so worthless in just 2 months? Will you say the same thing about Mike Lowell, who is supposed to be a quick starter and a second half decliner? What about all those other players who have had slow take offs -- I dunno, Beltre, Beltran, etc. Are they all to be mercilessly dumped for a song? Look at that, Eric Chavez, Victor Martinez and even Bobby Abreu a few weeks before -- they should have all been burning at the stakes, with the shadow of a Mendoza-like ogre looming over them all.Ryan Freel you say? Hummmmmmmmm ... I think Pierre's better numbers are ahead of him. The body is still warm -- don't call in the morgue just yet."

-VBlue

Today, Eric Karabell echoed (echoed, echoed, echoed...) my statements in his KaraBlog article, Puzzling Pierre, Fab Figgins
(subscription required). Pierre just isn't getting faster - he consistently leads the majors in caught stealing. He's been dropped to SEVENTH in the lineup (hitting in front of that RBI machine Alex Gonzalez). None of these are good signs, folks.

I'm not saying go out and drop Pierre. We know what his ceiling is, and it's fantastic. Unfortunately, we're quickly learning what his basement is - and that's the problem. What Pierre owners need to do is figure out (a) if they really need his steals and (b) if they can get decent value for him (you overpaid a 2nd or 3rd round pick on him - if you can finagle a 4-6 Round pick, you should do it in a heartbeat).

Now, the difference here between Pierre and the lamentable lineup of slumpers listed above is that all those players aren't finesse speedsters - for the most part they're bashers who provide pop. They're two different creatures - there's a reason Harold Baines played until he started collecting Social Security and Rickey Henderson... no, wait, that won't work...

Just look through the last ten years of top stolen base leaders, and you just shake your head - so many one-year wonders and so many inconsistent players. The point, again, is that there are always going to be cheap steals out there - why overpay for Pierre?

Trade Offer Advice - Utley/Blalock/Santana for Lee/Soriano/Beckett

Like I said, I'm more than willing to answer e-mails asking for fantasy advice.

Pogue from fanhome.com writes (after a lengthy discussion of his league's wonderfully complex rules):

"12 team H2H keeper ml points league w/6 keepers
I give: Derrek Lee
(keeper), Soriano (keeper), and Beckett
To get: Blalock, Utley, and Johan
Santana (all keepers)"

His roster looks like:

"1B:
Derrek Lee*
2B: Alfonso Soriano*, Rickie Weeks*
3B: Aubrey Huff*, Andy
Marte*, Eric Hinske*
SS: Pedro Feliz, Felipe Lopez*, Bobby Crosby*
C:
Jason Phillips*
OF: Manny Ramirez, Vernon Wells* Ken Griffey, Jr., Jason
Bay, Brad Hawpe*
SP: Tim Hudson* Josh Beckett, Javier Vasquez, Freddy
Garcia, Brett Myers*, John Lackey*, Jamie Moyer*
RP: Brad Lidge* Jose Mesa,
Eddie Guardado*
IR: Javy Lopez
*Keeper"

With that trade, he'd end up with 6 very solid keepers for years to come (Blalock, Utley, Santana, Marte, Hudson and Lidge - or Huff instead of Hudson if he can get his act together). Without the trade, he's still pretty solid. Now, I'm a huge fan of Utley's potential. But the final factor here is roster space - he'd end up with two or three third basemen with keeper potential (Blalock, Huff and Marte), and Utley at 1B (where's not at full potential - 2B). But, those are small sacrifices to make to get Santana as a keeper. Do the trade.

Keep sending in those questions! Just make sure to include your league size and type, as well as your roster.

Utley Has a Fulltime Job!

This is fantastic news. Sorta. Because I had drafted Brian Roberts in so many leagues, I've been set at 2B. Normally I would have invested in Utley as a decent backup 2B with tons of potential, but I didn't this year because of Roberts' ridiculous production.

So today, the Phillies traded Placido Polanco to the Detroit Tigers for Ugeth Urbina and infielder Ramon Martinez - a move that completely opens up the 2B job for Chase Utley full-time. (He had previously been platooning with Polanco, starting versus righthanders.)

This will most likely be the hottest young infielder moved around in fantasy leagues this week.

But should he? I say no - Andy Marte should be. With Chipper Jones out 3-4 weeks for the Braves, Andy Marte was called up. He's an incredibly highly touted rookie, with potential on par with Miquel Cabrera. Keeper league owners beware - whoever grabs this kid off of waivers could be running away with the league in the next few years.

Steve Finley - Abner Doubleday's Mentor

Steve, I love ya. You've carried teams of mine in the past, because each year people avoid you. "He's too old!" "He farts dirt." "He kicked me as a child." The list of complaints goes on. But each year, he just goes out, hits a hair under .300 (dude's been playing since 1989 and never hit above .300), and provides rock-solid consistency in the OF. And he slips in drafts, and can be had dirt cheap in trades. What's not to love?

How about his .223 BA this season? I sure don't love that. His 2:1 K:BB is killing me as well. As of today, he's 3 games behind the 58 games he played for the Dodgers last year, and the numbers are looking frighteningly similar.

This year, he's showing his age. And I don't get it. Luis Gonzalez is hitting it hard, and he's old. Jamie Moyer put up a string of 5 great games this season, and he's old. Roger Clemens has been fantastic, and Randy Johnson (while not putting up Top Two numbers) is getting it done. Hell, Rickey Henderson unretired and is playing International League ball! Why can't Steve Finley at the ripe old age of 67 hit worth a crap?

I heard him on ESPN Radio this afternoon, and he's concerned. He said that he always seems to heat up when the temperature rises, so maybe he'll improve. I don't buy it. His career numbers suggest that his best months are May (.820 OPS) and September (.800 OPS). July isn't far behind (.799 OPS), but it certainly doesn't suggest he's a summer hitter. I don't expect him to continue hitting .220, but I won't be surprised if he stays below .260 for the season. Not what I'm looking for from such a (previously) consistent veteran.

Juan Pierre - the Poor Man's Ryan Freel

You better believe it, sister - I did just go there. And now you're asking how I can say with a straight face that Ryan Freel, the perpetual platoon utility man is considerably better than Juan Pierre, the fastest man alive?

Easily. Sure, Pierre has consistently been hitting .300 throughout his 6 year career. Sure, Freel's playing time isn't guaranteed. But for the time being (read: all keeper league owners can stop reading now), Pierre's value has all but disappeared. He's not stealing at the rate you drafted him for (15th in MLB), he's certainly not hitting at the rate you drafted him for (.255 - are you kidding me?), and he's certainly not producing in terms of HRs or RBIs (which we didn't expect).

But there's Freel, just chugging along for whatever team picked him up off the free agent list, stealing more bases than Pierre, getting caught a whole lot less frequently than Pierre, and hitting a TON more than Pierre has been. "What about playing time? I don't want an every-other-day player." In the last month, Freel has only had 6 fewer plate appearances than Pierre, but has an OBP over .150 more than Pierre (.392 to .240). Oh, and Freel has wracked up 2 more SBs, 2 more RBIs and 7 Runs over that period. Freel's earned himself a starting job in Cincinnati, and is going to hold on to it.

Additionally, I have yet to mention Freel's multiple position eligibilities - especially 2B, which is typically where you rely on your speed. Sure, the OF has plenty of great speed options (Podsednik, Ichiro, as well as the top power/speed combos like Abreu, Beltran and others), but you have to have some solid power from your other two spots to make up for it - not a .255 hitter that you vastly overpaid for.

Now, I'm not suggesting you go out and trade Pierre for Freel. But I am suggesting you trade Pierre away if you have him. His perceived value is much higher than his actual value. Go out and get a pitcher upgrade for him - make the other owner think he's getting an absolute bargain. Just remember next year before your draft that cheap steals are ALWAYS available - either late in the draft, or on the free agent market. Always have been, always will.

Lance Berkman, Firstbaseman?!?

No, it's not as surprising as Rick Ankiel going to the outfield or cats sleeping with dogs (or Zell Miller declaring himself a Democrat - but that's for a different sort of blog). But it's changes like this that get me sorta excited, but no one else could really give a damn about.

Okay, I realize that the Astros are absolutely terrible this year. The only thing ESPN seems to focus on is Roger Clemens' batting average (which is absurdly high, by the way). But there is a ton of interesting things going on on this team in terms of fantasy news.

It's old news that Craig Biggio is now a 2B - I'm glad I gave that pretty good odds when drafting this year and grabbed him late in a few leagues. But Willie Tavares and his consistent speed have been cheap fantasy points, Ensberg is really getting hot, Bagwell is done for the year (and maybe his career), and ... okay, maybe that's about it.

The news today (or actually, this weekend) is that Lance Berkman started his fifth game at 1B, making him 1B eligible in Yahoo! leagues. This completely slipped under my radar, even though I've been toying with him in my money league all day. For those teams out there who somehow didn't manage to get a good 1B (and really, what are the odds of that? You'd have to be in a huge 20 team league, or just really suck to not have someone decent at first), Berkman could be a great option for you to target. Lord knows, he's pissing his owner off out there who's been waiting for him to put up Berkman-like numbers. Currently, Berkman's numbers have been very un-Berkman-esque - a fact that a couple of my teams know only too well.

First Post

No Jerry Maguire mission statement. No grand illusion of wisdom. Just some quick groundwork and a warning that I will mostly be bitching about my injury prone fantasy teams, writing pathetic smack talk only to quickly eat my words as my "brilliant" free agent pickups go the route of Jerome Walton and Bob Hamelin. Also, I'd like to preemptively apologize to any SABR disciples who may stumble upon this mess - I may at times post pathetically incorrect assumptions and projections, and I'm fine with that. If you're not, then move on. I read "Moneyball" and a couple chapters of a "Baseball Prospectus" a few years ago. Both were good reads, but the subject just didn't stick with me. I'll take my baseball subjective and contradictory, thank you very much. It suits me.